ANZ Warns of Milk Price Risks as New Dairy Season Begins
The new dairy season is kicking off with plenty of risks to the forecast farmgate price, both upside and downside, says ANZ agricultural economist Matt Dilly.
The cost of running a New Zealand farm is now 27% higher than it was before Covid, putting sustained pressure on profitability acrfoss the sector, according to new ANZ research.
The finding comes from ANZ's latest Agri Insights report, which analysed the financial performance of more than 4000 dairy, red meat, kiwifruit, arable and pipfruit customers, comparing the 2020-24 period with the previous five years.
It found that while general inflation had stabilised in recent times, cost increases within the farming system have become structural, meaning farms now need to lift productivity just to stand still.
Lorraine Mapu, ANZ NZ's managing director of business and agri, said events playing out in the Middle East are a reminder that global uncertainty - from geopolitical tensions to fuel supply and input volatility - add another layer of complexity for farmers.
"While we're not currently receiving customer requests seeking specific support for issues linked to the conflict, we're staying close to our customers and remain focused on supporting them through any emerging challenges," Mapu says.
"What this research shows, though, is that the businesses best placed to navigate that uncertainty are the ones with strong fundamentals, good visibility over their costs, and the ability to keep investing in productivity through the cycle.
"Farming is now a higher-cost business than it was five years ago, and that's not something that unwinds when inflation cools.
"The standout performers aren't necessarily expanding or taking bigger risks - they're the ones who know their systems well, time their spending carefully, and keep finding small productivity gains year after year."
The report shows the gap between average farms and the top performers continues to widen, pointing to significant untapped productivity potential across the sector.
Forestry Minister Todd McClay has today congratulated the winners of the 2026 Growing Native Forests Champions Awards at Fieldays.
The Government has announced $60,000 to provide one-off grants of $1,000 to each of the 60 New Zealand Young Farmers (NZYF) clubs across the country.
New Zealand’s rural sector has once again demonstrated its generosity, with the second Rural Industry Leaders Dinner, Debate and Auction raising an impressive $400,000 for the Rural Support Trust.
There has been another twist to the Federated Farmers annual election fiasco.
Analysis of decades of research has revealed the implementation of good farming practices plays a critical role in reducing nutrient losses to improve freshwater outcomes.
Yesterday the Government used the opening of Fieldays to announce a major investment, as part of its Land Use Flexibility package, to support a more productive and sustainable future across six sectors including dairy.

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