What Would Synlait Be Worth to Fonterra or a2 Milk?
Speculation of a possible joint move by Fonterra and a2 Milk to buy Synlait raises a much bigger strategic question, says agribusiness expert Dr Nic Lees.
That's how Waikato Federated Farmers chair Matthew Zonderop describes a report that confirms New Zealand remains the world's largest single-country dairy exporter.
According to Rabobank's 2026 World Dairy Map, New Zealand accounted for 22.1% of world dairy exports in 2025.
"This is a genuinely positive story for New Zealand," Zonderop told Dairy News.
"Remaining the world's largest single-country dairy exporter, accounting for 22.1% of global dairy exports in 2025, is a significant achievement.
"It reflects the sustained effort of New Zealand's dairy farmers, sharemilkers, farm staff, rural businesses, processors, exporters, boards and senior management teams, including those at Fonterra."
The benefits extend well beyond the farm gate, says Zonderop.
When the dairy sector earns export income, that money flows through rural communities, service businesses, transport operators, manufacturers and the wider New Zealand economy.
"Dairy remains one of the country's most important economic engines," he says.
The new map and accompanying report - which examine key trends and trade flows in global dairy for the period 2017 to 2025 - show global dairy trade grew by 11% across this time frame, increasing from around 9.1 billion kg in liquid milk equivalents (LME) in 2017 to 101.2 billion kg in 2025.
Rabobank senior agricultural analyst Emma Higgins said the map and report highlight New Zealand's consistent contribution to world dairy exports across this period.
"If we look back across the last eight years, New Zealand's contribution to global dairy exports has held remarkably steady, oscillating between a high of 23 billion kg (2019 & 2021) and a low of 21 billion kg (2017, 2018 & 2022). And since 2023, New Zealand's contribution has held constant at 22 billion kg," she said.
“With overall dairy trade having increased, New Zealand’s market share has dropped slightly, but it is still contributing well over a fifth of all global dairy exports.”
The report says the EU bloc continues to be the world’s largest dairy exporter overall – accounting for 27% of world dairy exports in 2025 – however their export share is also slowly eroding.
“Back in 2017, the EU was responsible for closer to 30% of all global dairy exports, but since then we’ve seen their overall share driven lower by falling exports into China.” Higgins said.
A major contributor to this fall is China’s liquid milk market, where imports have declined significantly in recent years.
European exporters have borne much of that impact, while New Zealand has maintained stable export volumes and has become China’s largest supplier of imported liquid milk and cream since 2024.
The report says the US – the world’s next largest global dairy exporter behind the EU and New Zealand – has grown dairy exports across recent years.
