El Niño Spring Outlook: What to Expect in Five NZ Regions
El Niño has officially been with us for several weeks now, and late winter and early September have given us a taste of what is to come.
Current forecasts indicate El Niño has the potential for stronger westerly winds, drier conditions in eastern regions and increased rainfall particularly in parts of Southland, Taranaki and the West Coast.
Ballance science strategy manager Warwick Catto says while every El Niño is different, farmers should expect greater variability and fewer ideal application windows.
"Whether it's dry soils, persistent winds, or saturated paddocks, the common theme here is that nutrient application may become more difficult to time," he says.
"Farming has always been about making good decisions in the conditions you've got, not the conditions you'd like. This season may require a bit more flexibility and forward planning than usual."
Warwick adds serial application could be particularly challenging in exposed hill country and high-country environments where stronger westerly winds are forecast.
"Waiting for the perfect conditions can sometimes mean missing the opportunity altogether. Our advice is to plan ahead and where possible, act early, so nutrients have time to generate the feed required heading into spring and further on into the season."
Recent research and field observations undertaken by Ballance show there are still productivity benefits from nutrient application even when conditions are less than ideal.
"Many farmers worry that if rain arrives unexpectedly after an application, or if soil temperatures are lower than they'd like, they've wasted their investment. The reality is that's often not the case," adds Catto.
"The timing may not be perfect but having some nutrient application when pastures and crops need it is far better than running short entirely."
Ballance's work examining nutrient performance across a range of environmental conditions has shown nitrogen continues to deliver productive pasture responses under both dry and wet scenarios, provided applications are made appropriately and aligned with farm feed requirements.
"Nobody is suggesting extreme weather is ideal for growing feed, but what we've seen is that nutrients continue to do their job across a wider range of conditions than many people assume," he says.
"The key is understanding the likely response and planning accordingly."
