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Analysts are now picking a dairy price recovery by the end of the year. Haven't they said that for the last three years?
Analysts are now picking a dairy price recovery by the end of the year. Haven't they said that for the last three years?
Even their usual cautious optimism is being tempered by words like "fragile" international dairy markets, worries over how bad the situation is in China and the outlook for the global economy. Even the most optimistic forecasters have a payout with a '4' in front of it for this season in review and are anxiously watching for the next season.
The year will be a tough one and there are no quick-fix solutions.
The usual messages – tough it out, watch costs, make sensible decisions and talk to you banks – still can't be ignored. But even those only go so far. There's a point at which you have to ask, is this working and if not where to now?
Individuals will be asking themselves those questions right now. Some will be making tough decisions this year, particularly those who are highly leveraged. Dairy farms are starting to hit the market in some vulnerable areas; lots of farmers and other New Zealanders will be hoping to see those stay in onshore ownership.
The long-term outlook for dairy still remains optimistic but how long the recovery will take is becoming anybody's guess. And just who will be the winners in that recovery?
Is the dairy sector in New Zealand actually facing a new era? Will it have to reinvent itself as many industries have had to do over years in the face of increasing globalisation, new products and new technologies?
The US car industry was on its knees and almost facing obliteration after the Global Financial Crisis; last year a resurgent US auto industry was leading that country's economic recovery.
What are the answers for the New Zealand dairy industry? Hold tight, hold your nerve, wait for recovery? Or is there more to it than that? New systems, new technology, new business models, new strategies, new products?
Has Fonterra taken the right course in its global expansion and promotion of milk pools overseas, or contributed to the current pain of its own shareholders, the New Zealand farmer. Or are these wily strategic moves in this new global game, which we must play or slip into economic oblivion?
Fonterra has kicked off the debate with its "Let's have the Conversation" on governance and representation. But that conversation needs to go wider, broader and braver.
Do we dare to have it?
OPINION: There is zero chance that someone who joined Fonterra as a lobbyist, then served as a general manager of Fonterra's nutrient management programme, and sat on the board of Export NZ, a division of lobbyist group Business New Zealand, doesn't understand that local butter (and milk and cheese) prices are set by the international commodity price.
Kiwis love their butter, and that's great because New Zealand produces some of the best butter in the world. But when the price of butter goes up, it's tough for some, particularly when many other grocery staples have also gone up and the heat goes on co-operative Fonterra, the country's main butter maker. Here the co-op explains why butter prices are so high right now.
An A$2 billion bid for Fonterra's Oceania business would be great news, according to Forsyth Barr senior analyst, equities, Matt Montgomerie.
If you find a new consumer in a developed wine market, you are taking them from someone else, says Blank Canvas co-founder Sophie Parker-Thomson MW.
The large 2025 harvest will exacerbate the wine industry's "lingering" supply from recent vintages, New Zealand Winegrowers Chief Executive Philip Gregan told attendees at Grape Days events around the country in June.
Farmer lobby group Federated Farmers has announced it is supporting a new Member’s Bill which it says could bring clarity to New Zealand farmers and save millions in legal costs.
DairyNZ has announced the date for its upcoming Milksolids Levy vote.
Federated Farmers says climate protest group Greenpeace is manufacturing outrage and attempting to scare New Zealanders with headlines that have no basis in science.
New Zealand Food Safety (NZFS) says it is supporting importer Goodfood Group in its decision to recall Food Snob and Mon Ami brand French Brie and Camembert cheeses.
New Zealand's dairy industry is right to call out Donald Trump over the damage the additional 15% tariff the US is imposing on our exports but also imposition on lower tariffs on our competitors.
Applications are now open for the Agri Futures Scholarships, helping young Kiwis from rural backgrounds kickstart careers in agriculture and rural sports.
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