increase font size
General manager for RaboResearch New Zealand and Australia Stefan Vogel.
The global agricultural landscape has entered a new phase where geopolitics – not only traditional market forces – will dictate agricultural trade flows, prices, and production decisions.
That’s according to Rabobank’s Agri Commodity Outlook 2026 report. It describes a world where agricultural commodity exports have become “pawns on a geopolitical chessboard” between two spheres of influence - China and the United States - that both serve as crucial export destinations for New Zealand.
With trade wars reshaping long-standing production and exporting patterns, Rabobank head of agri commodity markets research Carlos Mera said that agriculture was now playing by geopolitical as well as supply-and-demand rules.
“[For example] before the Trump-Xi agreement, Brazil’s soy export prices benefitted from strong Chinese demand while US prices were heavily depressed. Since the announcement of the agreement US and Brazil soybean prices have come closer together, but given that we still see a lot of trade barriers ahead, more price differences are likely.
“Farmers, traders, and policymakers must prepare for a world where trade is disrupted, regional prices fluctuate and the unexpected is now the baseline. Geopolitical fragmentation and government intervention has redefined global agriculture.”
Initial trade conflicts that began with tariffs have evolved into a global subsidy race with governments intensifying agricultural support programmes through direct payments, minimum price guarantees and biofuel mandates.
General manager for RaboResearch New Zealand and Australia Stefan Vogel said this widespread protection has muted the reaction of farmers to low prices.
“New Zealand’s trade with the US and China is going strong, benefiting farmgate prices. New Zealand will be hoping to fly largely under the geopolitical radar again in 2026.”
Despite trade tension, global growth in 2025 exceeded expectations supported by monetary easing, lower energy prices and frontloading of exports ahead of tariff hikes.
However, these mitigating factors will fade, with the negative effects of tariffs and uncertainty (such as widening price gaps between producing nations) likely to surface in 2026.
Rabobank forecasts global GDP growth at 2.9% in 2025, easing to 2.7% in 2026. While trade between major blocs will likely slow, intraregional trade could rise due to diversion. Inflationary pressures are expected to persist in some regions but will likely be less severe than previously projected.
Meanwhile, the tariff war’s unintended effects are still being corrected, with US authorities reviewing tariffs on products the country does not produce – like coffee and cocoa – which could ease costs for US consumers and restore trade flows from producing nations.
Milk production in most key global dairyexporting regions is growing with a velocity outperforming RaboResearch’s previous expectations. These gains are expected to maintain momentum into 2026, though the pace will moderate.
To celebrate the tenth anniversary of its annual Good Deeds competition, Rabobank will give away $100,000 to improve rural community hubs, schools, clubrooms, and marae across New Zealand.
Fonterra’s impending exit from the Australian dairy industry is a major event but the story doesn’t change too much for farmers.
Farmer confidence has taken a slight dip according to the final Rabobank rural confidence survey for the year.
Global beef trade is expected to grow steadily over the next five years, driven by increasing demand from Asia and strategic export expansions by South American countries.
With production volumes contracting in most major beef-producing regions, global cattle prices have continued to rise across recent months.
DairyNZ Chair Tracy Brown has seen a lot of change since she first started out in the dairy sector, with around one-third of dairy farmers now women.
Castle Ridge Station has been named the Regional Supreme Winner at the Canterbury Ballance Farm Environment Awards.
The South Island Dairy Event has announced Jessica Findlay as the recipient of the BrightSIDE Scholarship Programme, recognising her commitment to furthering her education and future career in the New Zealand dairy industry.
New Zealand and Chile have signed a new arrangement designed to boost agricultural cooperation and drive sector success.
New DairyNZ research will help farmers mitigate the impacts of heat stress on herds in high-risk regions of the country.
Budou are being picked now in Bridge Pā, the most intense and exciting time of the year for the Greencollar team – and the harvest of the finest eating grapes is weeks earlier than expected.
OPINION: Expect the Indian free trade deal to feature strongly in the election campaign.
OPINION: One of the world's largest ice cream makers, Nestlé, is going cold on the viability of making the dessert.
