increase font size
General manager for RaboResearch New Zealand and Australia Stefan Vogel.
The global agricultural landscape has entered a new phase where geopolitics – not only traditional market forces – will dictate agricultural trade flows, prices, and production decisions.
That’s according to Rabobank’s Agri Commodity Outlook 2026 report. It describes a world where agricultural commodity exports have become “pawns on a geopolitical chessboard” between two spheres of influence - China and the United States - that both serve as crucial export destinations for New Zealand.
With trade wars reshaping long-standing production and exporting patterns, Rabobank head of agri commodity markets research Carlos Mera said that agriculture was now playing by geopolitical as well as supply-and-demand rules.
“[For example] before the Trump-Xi agreement, Brazil’s soy export prices benefitted from strong Chinese demand while US prices were heavily depressed. Since the announcement of the agreement US and Brazil soybean prices have come closer together, but given that we still see a lot of trade barriers ahead, more price differences are likely.
“Farmers, traders, and policymakers must prepare for a world where trade is disrupted, regional prices fluctuate and the unexpected is now the baseline. Geopolitical fragmentation and government intervention has redefined global agriculture.”
Initial trade conflicts that began with tariffs have evolved into a global subsidy race with governments intensifying agricultural support programmes through direct payments, minimum price guarantees and biofuel mandates.
General manager for RaboResearch New Zealand and Australia Stefan Vogel said this widespread protection has muted the reaction of farmers to low prices.
“New Zealand’s trade with the US and China is going strong, benefiting farmgate prices. New Zealand will be hoping to fly largely under the geopolitical radar again in 2026.”
Despite trade tension, global growth in 2025 exceeded expectations supported by monetary easing, lower energy prices and frontloading of exports ahead of tariff hikes.
However, these mitigating factors will fade, with the negative effects of tariffs and uncertainty (such as widening price gaps between producing nations) likely to surface in 2026.
Rabobank forecasts global GDP growth at 2.9% in 2025, easing to 2.7% in 2026. While trade between major blocs will likely slow, intraregional trade could rise due to diversion. Inflationary pressures are expected to persist in some regions but will likely be less severe than previously projected.
Meanwhile, the tariff war’s unintended effects are still being corrected, with US authorities reviewing tariffs on products the country does not produce – like coffee and cocoa – which could ease costs for US consumers and restore trade flows from producing nations.
Milk production in most key global dairyexporting regions is growing with a velocity outperforming RaboResearch’s previous expectations. These gains are expected to maintain momentum into 2026, though the pace will moderate.
37 farmers from across the Rangitīkei and Manawatū regions recently spent a day-and-a-half learning new business management and planning skills at Rabobank’s latest AgPathways Programmes in Whanganui.
Carey Pawson-Edwards, a South Canterbury stock manager, has been named the winner of the 2026 Rabobank Management Project Award.
Despite near universal optimism in the rural sector, a panel of New Zealand’s leading food and agri minds caution that the sector must be intentional about its future path.
Rabobank has celebrated the tenth anniversary of its AgPathways Programme, with 23 farmers from Otago and Southland gathering for two-and-a-half days to learn new business management and planning skills.
Rabobank launched its Good Deeds Competition back in 2017 with the aim of supporting and celebrating the incredible efforts of rural communities in enhancing their local areas.
New Zealand dairy farmers are set to be the first in the world to receive access to a new digital physical milk pricing tool that enables them to fix the price for their physical milk.
State farmer Pāmu is opening its farm gates this summer in an effort to give the rural sector the opportunity to see how large-scale, multi-system farming is delivering productivity and profitability across New Zealand.
A five-year study has found that the cost of reducing emissions without technology may be significant and unsustainable for Northland dairy farmers.
DairyNZ says Waikato farmers need certainty on Plan Change 1, but they say that certainty must be matched with practical, workable rules and a clear transition that doesn't get ahead of the new resource management system currently under review.
While the Government has moved quickly to make commercial hauliers' lot easier during the current fuel crisis, they appear to be stuck in the creep box when it comes to the agricultural industry.
Waikato farmers have been told that the Government’s new planning system legislation and the region’s Plan Change 1 (PC1) “won’t mesh together very well”.
OPINION: No one messes around with Winston Peters, more so in a general election year.
OPINION: Staying on Federated Farmers, this week's annual general meeting in Auckland is shaping up to be an interesting one.
