NZ Red Meat Outlook 2026: Growth amid trade uncertainty
While things are looking positive for the red meat sector in 2026, volatility in global trade remains a concern, says the Meat Industry Association (MIA).
The value of exports to most major markets was higher than October 2024, with the US up 36% to $196 million, the EU up 31% to $159 million, the UK up 130% to $64 million, and Canada up 55% to $52 million.
The one major exception was China, where exports were down 8% due to a drop in both beef and sheepmeat exports.
MIA chief executive Sirma Karapeeva says the combination of strong demand and tighter global supplies this year saw the average value of NZ sheepmeat exports reach a record $14.31/kg during the month.
“The overall volume of sheepmeat exports was up 10 per cent but the value was up 48 per cent due to strong demand in Europe and North America,” says Karapeeva.
“The overall volume of beef exports was down seven per cent compared to last October, but the value was up 15 per cent.”
Karapeeva says higher tariffs do not appear to have impacted red meat exports to the US during October.
“New Zealand beef exports to the US fell 17 per cent by volume but there was also a drop in Australian beef exports, so that was unlikely to be due to tariffs," she says.
“However, there was a large drop in beef exports to China, down 30 per cent by volume to 5,340 tonnes and 23 per cent by value to $41 million.
“Following the US putting an additional 40 per cent tariff on imports from Brazil in August, raising the overall beef tariff to 76 per cent, there has been a significant diversion of Brazilian beef exports to other markets, particularly China.
“In September and October, China imported nearly 340,000 tonnes of beef from Brazil, which has displaced imports from other suppliers, including New Zealand.”
