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Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold.
The final Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction for the 2023-24 season augurs well the forecast milk price for the new season.
While the banks are forecasting between $8.35 to $8.40/kgMS, Fonterra later this week, its forecast range for the season starting June 1.
Last week's GDT delivered good news: while the price index rose 3.3%, Chinese buyers returned after pulling back in the earlier May auction. Also, whole milk powder prices rose 2.9% to US$3,408/metric tonne.
Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold noted that auction was "another very strong one with gains across the board".
"All categories rose and wrong-footed futures markets, which again saw a much flatter result," says Eckhold.
"Chinese buyers returned this time after pulling back in the early May auction. Overall prices are now 10 per cent or so above their long-term averages. We can certainly see upside risk building to our milk price forecast of $8.40/kgMS for the 2024/25 season."
ASB senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown believes farmers can hope for a farmgate milk price in the top half of Fonterra's guidance range ($7.50-$8.10/kgMS) this year.
"We remain comfortable with our $8.35/kgMS forecast."
Global Dairy Trade (GDT) and Arla Foods have announced that Arla will begin offering European-sourced skim milk powder (SMP) on GDT Pulse from May 2025 as part of an extension to the GDT Pulse pilot.
Horticultural prices are set to remain elevated this year, reflecting the balance between demand in key export markets and an increase in supply.
A significant rise in Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction last week has prompted one bank to lift its forecast milk price for the season to above Fonterra's mid-point.
Whole milk powder prices on Global Dairy Trade (GDT) remains above long run averages and a $10/kgMS milk price for the season remains on the card, says ASB senior economist Chris Tennent-Brown.
The first Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction drew mixed results, with drop in powder prices and lift in butter and cheeses.
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