Dairy Exports Set to Reach $31 Billion by 2030, MPI Predicts
Dairy continues to be the mainstay of the country's primary export earnings.
Announcing the latest outlook at Fieldays, Agriculture and Trade Minister Todd McClay says the figures demonstrate the strength and resilience of New Zealand’s primary industries, with strong global demand continuing to drive returns across multiple sectors.
The latest Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report forecasts a 6% increase in export revenue compared with the previous year, supported by strong performances in dairy, red meat, horticulture and processed food exports.
Record Growth Across Key Export Sectors
Several primary industry sectors are expected to achieve record export revenues during the 2025–26 financial year.
Key forecasts include:
- Dairy export revenue rising 5 per cent to a record $28.6 billion
- Meat and wool export revenue increasing 14 per cent to a record $14.1 billion
- Horticulture export revenue growing 7 per cent to a record $9.5 billion
- Processed food and other product exports increasing 5 per cent to a record $3.5 billion
The strong performance reflects healthy international demand for New Zealand’s premium food and fibre products, alongside favourable production conditions across several sectors.
Dairy and Red Meat Lead Farmgate Returns
“Kiwi farmers are expected to benefit from strong farmgate returns this year due to high milk prices, record milk production and tight global red meat supplies, which will cushion against shipping and supply chain disruptions from the Middle East conflict," says McClay.
“Export revenue is forecast to reach $64.3 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, up six per cent, with records across multiple sectors driven by healthy demand for dairy and red meat, alongside bumper kiwifruit and apple crops."
“Food and fibre exports are expected to lift even further to a record $70.1 billion in the year to 30 June 2030, thanks to our hardworking Kiwi farmers, growers, foresters, fishers and processors.”
Government Focused on Supporting Sector Growth
McClay says the Government continues to back the food and fibre sector’s success.
“We are focused on supporting our farmers and growers because when the primary sector does well, it means more jobs, higher wages, and more money flowing through to communities.”
This National-led Government will continue to back the sector – including increasing trade opportunities like in India, reducing barriers to trade, and partnering with industry to help meet rising global demand by driving a step change in food and fibre production through greater land use flexibility.
“We are focused on fixing the basics and building the future through sensible reforms across freshwater, resource management and agricultural emissions.
“The Government is laser-focused on delivering more returns to Kiwi food and fibre producers and rural communities, growing the economy, and delivering prosperity for all New Zealanders – fixing the basics and building the future.”
