ANZ Warns of Milk Price Risks as New Dairy Season Begins
The new dairy season is kicking off with plenty of risks to the forecast farmgate price, both upside and downside, says ANZ agricultural economist Matt Dilly.
Large falls in Global Dairy Trade (GDT) prices in recent months increased downside risks to the farmgate milk price, but last week's positive GDT result has provided some correction.
Fonterra is forecasting a milk price range with a mid-point of $9/kgMS with Westpac predicting $9.30/kgMS.
Westpac NZ chief economist Kelly Eckhold told Rural News that large price falls last month presented downside risk to their forecast milk price.
However, Eckhold says last week's results - a 7.2% rise in the whole milk powder price - suggests that the season's milk price will be in the range of $9 to $9.30/kgMS.
"While it's the first auction of the year and there's a lot of water to flow under the bridge, farmers are still in a fairly good place with around a $9 milk price," he says.
"I still see dairy being in a strong place, although this time last season farmers were getting a $10 milk price."
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Federated Farmers Waikato dairy chair Matthew Zonderop says the latest GDT result means a fantastic start to the year.
He told Rural News that everyone had good rain for much of the past six weeks.
"Feed stores are full, cows are milking well and the temperatures haven't really been too hot.
"Crops and maize are loving this weather. I think it's our year, to coin the phrase."
There are other factors working in favour of dairy farmers, particularly Fonterra suppliers in line for a $2/share or around $3.2 billion capital return in the coming months.
The exchange rate is also helping boost returns. The NZ dollar was hovering just under US58c last week and will provide a buffer against any more drops in global dairy prices.
At last week's GDT auction, the price index rose 6.3% to an average winning price of US$3,533/metric tonne, its first gain after nine consecutive drops.
WMP rose to US$3,407/MT. In mid-August 2025, the WMP price had reached US$4,036/MT and in May last year it had topped US$4,374/MT.
The high prices had triggered a boost in global milk production, which caused prices to fall in recent months.
Eckhold says there was "quite a sharp turnaround" in dairy prices after heavy drops in December.
But he cautioned against reading too much into the price rebound last week: there was less volume on offer and there were still limited buyers as many traders were still on leave.
Eckhold notes that milk production globally remains strong - up 4% year-on-year. And while demand is resurging, the global markets remain volatile.
"There's a lot of stuff going on politically, there's a lot of volatility and we don't know how demand for dairy will evolve."
