US Launches Lamb Safeguard Probe, NZ Exports at Risk
As expected, the US has launched a safeguard investigation into lamb imports, a move that could impact New Zealand sheepmeat returns.
Chief executive Sirma Karapeeva believes the sector will still face some unpredictability and volatility along the way.
She says Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) outlook for the sector which shows that revenue from meat and wool exports to the end of June will be up 7% to $13.2 billion and the fact there will be a further increase in the following year is a positive sign.
Karapeeva says the good returns is helping to off-set lower production caused by a drop in sheep numbers.
"However, I think there are several challenges in the trade space that are coming our ways. We still have limited clarity on what the US Supreme Court will [decide] around President Trump's tariffs and whether those were legitimate or not - and what they might mean going forward," she says.
Karapeeva says this is concerning, as is the impact that China's import restrictions might have. She says they still don't have clarity on this.
What is becoming apparent is the importance of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) in a world where rules-based trade is becoming more problematic, she says.
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The FTAs guarantee optionality for exporters, help mitigate risk and provide good economic returns for farmers, processors, exporters and the overall NZ economy. She points to the past year when trade agreements were signed for Middle East countries, and the FTA with India which still has to be ratified.
"Once the Indian FTA is ratified, the challenge will be how the industry can take advantage of this opportunity. In my opinion, FTAS are coming into their own because they have very good dispute resolution mechanisms and in the absence of global trade rules from the WTO, the FTAs provide a guard rail for our trade," she says.
Looking back at 2025, Karapeeva describes it as turbulent but positive. She says it was a tough year for members of MIA with a lot of what she calls 'moving pieces'. She says it's a credit to them that they were able to navigate their way through all the challenges and in the end produce an excellent result - lifting revenue from the sector by nearly a billion dollars on the previous year.
