NZ Red Meat Outlook 2026: Growth amid trade uncertainty
While things are looking positive for the red meat sector in 2026, volatility in global trade remains a concern, says the Meat Industry Association (MIA).
The MIA says the value of oversall exports for the third quarter of 2025 reached $2.27 billion, 20% higher than the same quarter in 2024.
New Zealand’s three major markets all increased in value in September, with the US up 25% to $175 million, China up 26% to $131 million and the EU up 35% to $116 million.
MIA chief executive Sirma Karapeeva says that currently, the US tariffs implemented earlier in the year do not appear to be having a significant impact on exports.
“September is the first month where our sector might have seen a material impact on red meat exports to the US.
“While there was a drop in beef exports to the US, that could be partly due to other market factors, as there was also a fall in beef exports to Canada.
“There was also an increase in both sheepmeat and fifth quarter exports to the US in September.”
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The drop in beef exports to North America was offset by increased demand for beef exports to North Asia and the UK, she says.
The volume of beef exports was down 4% from last September to 26,866 tonnes, but the value increased by 15% to $286 million.
Beef exports to the US were down 17% by volume to 6,615 tonnes and 6% by value to $82 million. Canada was down 24% by volume to 2,429 tonnes and 5% by value to $26 million.
The volume and value of exports to China, Japan and Korea were all up from last September and there was further growth in exports to the UK, where volume was up 301% to 2,074 tonnes and value up 457% to $25 million.
Meanwhile, sheepmeat export volumes increased by 14% to 17,890 tonnes compared to September 2024 with the value rising 42% to $252 million.
This was partly due to growth in exports to the EU, with the volume up 11% to 3,327 tonnes and the value up 40% to $75 million.
There was also an increase in exports to China, up 12% by volume to 6,484 tonnes and 38% by value to $47 million, and to the US which increased 14% by volume to 2,273 tonnes and 17% by value to $42 million.
