Thursday, 26 June 2014 15:41

Dairy prices tipped to rise in six months

Written by 

RABOBANK is predicting global dairy price will recover in six months.


In its Dairy Quarterly Q2: Beyond the tipping point, the bank says prices fell as a result of improved milk production in export regions and the easing of forward purchasing by China.


These mechanisms freed more product for other buyers and lowered the need to ration demand with international dairy commodity prices falling 10% to 20% in the three months to mid-June.


"The pull back in Chinese purchasing has been particularly significant, with evidence that the Chinese industry has accumulated excess inventories after a period of vigorous buying, improved local milk production and weaker local sales. Current prices in the international market have dropped below what we see as sustainable in the medium term," explains Rabobank analyst Tim Hunt.


Milk production growth will slow considerably in the second half of 2014 as lower prices are passed to producers, weather normalises and comparables become tougher to exceed. Consumption in export regions will also slowly improve on the back of higher incomes, employment growth and falling retail prices.
"Together these forces should gradually tighten up the market as we progress through 2014," says Hunt.


"However, we expect little improvement in prices until late in 2014 or early 2015, as China works through its accumulated stocks and the world continues to consume the stronger than expected wave of milk produced in the first half of year."


The report notes that one upside risk to keep an eye on is a developing El Nino event. This has the potential to generate unusually dry conditions in South East Australia and excessive rainfall in Argentina – and hence reduced milk production in both of these export regions.

More like this

Dairy buoyant

The Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey found farmers' expectations for their own business operations had also improved, with the net reading on this measure lifting to +37% from +19% previously.

Farmer confidence flowing back

Confidence is flowing back into the farming sector on the back of higher dairy and meat prices, easing interest rates and a more farmer-friendly regulatory environment.

Featured

Dairy-beef offering potential for savings

Beef produced from cattle from New Zealand's dairy sector could provide reductions in greenhouse gas emissions of up to 48, compared to the average for beef cattle, a new study by AgResearch has found.

Dairy buoyant

The Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey found farmers' expectations for their own business operations had also improved, with the net reading on this measure lifting to +37% from +19% previously.

Farmer confidence flowing back

Confidence is flowing back into the farming sector on the back of higher dairy and meat prices, easing interest rates and a more farmer-friendly regulatory environment.

National

Machinery & Products

GEA launches robotic milkers

Milking technology provider GEA Farm Technologies is introducing its first automatic milking system (AMS) in New Zealand.

More front hoppers

German seeding specialists Horsch have announced a new 1600- litre double-tank option that will join its current Partner FT single…

Origin Ag clocks up 20 years

With roots dating back to 2004, Origin Ag was formed as a co-operative business model that removed the traditional distributor,…

» Latest Print Issues Online

The Hound

Dark ages

OPINION: Before we all let The Green Party have at it with their 'bold' emissions reduction plan, the Hound thought…

Rhymes with?

OPINION: The Feds' latest banking survey shows that bankers are even less popular with farmers than they used to be,…

» Connect with Rural News

» eNewsletter

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter