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RABOBANK is predicting global dairy price will recover in six months.
In its Dairy Quarterly Q2: Beyond the tipping point, the bank says prices fell as a result of improved milk production in export regions and the easing of forward purchasing by China.
These mechanisms freed more product for other buyers and lowered the need to ration demand with international dairy commodity prices falling 10% to 20% in the three months to mid-June.
"The pull back in Chinese purchasing has been particularly significant, with evidence that the Chinese industry has accumulated excess inventories after a period of vigorous buying, improved local milk production and weaker local sales. Current prices in the international market have dropped below what we see as sustainable in the medium term," explains Rabobank analyst Tim Hunt.
Milk production growth will slow considerably in the second half of 2014 as lower prices are passed to producers, weather normalises and comparables become tougher to exceed. Consumption in export regions will also slowly improve on the back of higher incomes, employment growth and falling retail prices.
"Together these forces should gradually tighten up the market as we progress through 2014," says Hunt.
"However, we expect little improvement in prices until late in 2014 or early 2015, as China works through its accumulated stocks and the world continues to consume the stronger than expected wave of milk produced in the first half of year."
The report notes that one upside risk to keep an eye on is a developing El Nino event. This has the potential to generate unusually dry conditions in South East Australia and excessive rainfall in Argentina – and hence reduced milk production in both of these export regions.
One of the most galling aspects of the tariffs whacked on our farm exports to the US is the fact that, now more than ever, US farmers are being propped up by government welfare – a direct result of Trump’s hardline on its trading partners.
A $10 milk price remains on the cards for this season despite recent softening of global dairy prices.
Farmers supplying milk to Taupo-based processor Miraka are getting a 2024-25 season base milk price of $10.16/kgMS.
With production volumes contracting in most major beef-producing regions, global cattle prices have continued to rise across recent months.
China looks set to play a key role in helping the New Zealand wool sector shift away from trading as a commodity supplier.
Acclaimed fruit grower Dean Astill never imagined he would have achieved so much in the years since being named the first Young Horticulturist of the Year, 20 years ago.
The Ashburton-based Carrfields Group continues to show commitment to future growth and in the agricultural sector with its latest investment, the recently acquired 'Spring Farm' adjacent to State Highway 1, Winslow, just south of Ashburton.
New Zealand First leader and Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has blasted Fonterra farmers shareholders for approving the sale of iconic brands to a French company.
A major feature of the Ashburton A&P Show, to be held on October 31 and November 1, will be the annual trans-Tasman Sheep Dog Trial test match, with the best heading dogs from both sides of the Tasman going head-to-head in two teams of four.
Fewer bobby calves are heading to the works this season, as more dairy farmers recognise the value of rearing calves for beef.
The key to a dairy system that generates high profit with a low emissions intensity is using low footprint feed, says Fonterra program manager on-farm excellence, Louise Cook.
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