Rabobank 2026 Outlook: Geopolitics shapes global agriculture
The global agricultural landscape has entered a new phase where geopolitics – not only traditional market forces – will dictate agricultural trade flows, prices, and production decisions.
That's according to a new report by food and agribusiness banking specialist Rabobank.
The new global beef trade report found that over the last five years exports had risen 14% from 2019 to nearly 13m metric tons by 2024.
Brazil and China have emerged as dominant forces in exports and imports, respectively.
Brazilian beef exports surged from 2.3m metric tons in 2019 to 3.6m metric tons in 2024, largely driven by growing market demand in China, of which Brazil provided 50% of beef imports (China accounted for 41% of Brazilian beef exports).
China overtook the US and Japan to become the world's dominant importer of beef, going from 2m to 3.5m metric tons between 2019 and 2024.
Despite the increase in volumes worldwide, the 2024 global beef trading map is not dissimilar from the 2019 map, with the main importing and exporting nations largely retaining their positions.
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The report says the second half of the decade is expected to witness continued growth in global beef trade.
