Rabobank flags rising global dairy prices, warns of downside risks ahead
While global dairy commodity prices continue to climb in most key exporting countries, the second half of the year is expected to bring increased downside risks.
The dip follows two successive upticks in prices at the November 15 and December 6 auctions.
Skimmed milk powder was down 3.2% at US$3,312/t and whole milk powder (WMP) back 1.5% at US$3,589/t. Anhydrous milk fat bucked the trend, lifting 4.8% to average US$4,183/t across the three positions offered, with sales for June-August up 11.8%.
The easier market overall comes amid suggestions demand from China is waning.
Earlier this week UK-based Agrimoney reported that USDA officials in Beijing had slashed predicted WMP demand from China, by far the biggest importer, by 75,000t to 375,000t.
Higher prices had put imported WMP out of reach of smaller Chinese processors who are turning increasingly to domestic supplies, despite continued safety concerns, said the USDA.
Meanwhile Rabobank, releasing its quarterly dairy report yesterday, predicted “abundant” supply through early 2012, as the Southern Hemisphere clears a strong production season and Northern Hemisphere production continues to outpace demand.
Stocks may start to build, increasing pressure to sell, and the market may struggle to digest supply the first quarter of 2012, “bringing the prospect of a return to a modest downward trend in pricing,” said the bank.
