Tuesday, 27 October 2015 18:37

GDT drop no big deal in context

Written by 

Fonterra chairman John Wilson says the 3% drop in last week's GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) event is not a lot in the context of the increases in recent GDT events.

In the four previous auctions the price index lifted at least 60% overall and whole milk powder over 80%.

Wilson expects prices to keep firming over the next six months, to about US$3000 to US$3500 per tonne.

The WMP index was down 4.6% last week to an average price of US$2694/MT.

"While it is disappointing to see the drop, demand is soft in some key economies; we need demand to go up," Wilson says.

ASB rural economist Nathan Penny says it looks as though markets have largely factored in that production is falling here in New Zealand.

"They have taken that information on board and now it's more about seasonal factors and how things develop from here.

"Last week's decline is likely to be due to the markets getting a bit ahead of themselves and now they are taking stock.

"From here, as we continue to see production falling compared to last year, we expect that to be reflected in gradually rising prices.

"As we get closer to summer and the risk of El Nino becomes more concrete that is also likely to support prices or push prices upwards. But the big move has now happened and it is more gradual from here."

He says the NZ production fall is the main driver and from here it will continue to drive prices but just at a more modest rate.

"Growth is slowing in the rest of the world but they are not doing the heavy lifting New Zealand is."

ASB is still forecasting a $5/kgMS milk price payout for 2015-16. – Pam Tipa

More like this

Entitled much?

OPINION: For the last few weeks, we've witnessed a parade of complaints about New Zealand's school lunch program: 'It's arriving late.' 'The portions are wrong.' 'I wanted caviar.'

Fonterra mulls options - sale or IPO

An outright sale of Fonterra’s global consumer business is more likely than a float, says Forsyth Barr senior analyst equities, Matt Montgomerie.

Fonterra updates earnings

Fonterra says its earnings for the 2025 financial year are anticipated to be in the upper half of its previously forecast earnings range of 40-60 cents per share.

Featured

Farmers seeking end to riverbed litigation

Landowners with farms bordering the Hoteo River, north of Auckland, are hopeful their pressure will influence the outcome of two applications by local iwi relating to ownership of the riverbed.

Youngest contestant proves age is no barrier

A Massey University student has inched closer to national victory after being crowned Taranaki-Manawatu's top young farmer, despite being the youngest competitor in the field.

New CEO for Safer Farms

Safer Farms, the industry-led organisation dedicated to fostering a safer farming culture, has appointed Brett Barnham as its new chief executive.

National

Certainty welcomed

There's been very little reaction to the government science reform announcement, with many saying the devil will be in the…

Science 'deserves more funding'

A committee which carried out the review into New Zealand's science system says the underinvestment will continue to compromise the…

Machinery & Products

Landpower win global award

Christchurch-headquartered Landpower and its Claas Harvest Centre dealerships has taken out the Global After Sales Excellence award in Germany, during…

Innovation, new products galore

It has been a year of new products and innovation at Numedic, the Rotorua-based manufacturer and exporter of farm dairy…

» Latest Print Issues Online

Milking It

No buyers

OPINION: Australian dairy is bracing for the retirement of an iconic dairy brand.

RIP Kitkat V

OPINION: Another sign that the plant-based dairy fallacy is unravelling and that nothing beats dairy-based products.

» Connect with Dairy News

» eNewsletter

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter