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Fonterra says the global dairy market remains largely in balance, but is not without some risk.
“We are keeping a close eye on international trade tensions and geopolitical risks. The weakening Chinese currency means less consumer purchasing power for USD-priced dairy products like ours. There is also continuing volatility in the price of dairy fat.
“On the other side, we have seen good Whole Milk Powder (WMP) demand. Global milk supply growth is slowing and international WMP production expectations are falling.”
The co-op is maintaining its current 2019-20 forecast range of $6.25 to $7.25/kgMS and the Advance Rate schedule, which is set off $6.75/kgMS.
“It is still early in the season with around 2% of our forecast full season milk volume collected to date, so we are retaining a range of +/- 50c/kgMS. As the season progresses and we get greater certainty on production and sales, this range will narrow,” it says.
It will announce the final 2018/19 Farmgate Milk Price as part of its annual results on 12 September.
OPINION: There is zero chance that someone who joined Fonterra as a lobbyist, then served as a general manager of Fonterra's nutrient management programme, and sat on the board of Export NZ, a division of lobbyist group Business New Zealand, doesn't understand that local butter (and milk and cheese) prices are set by the international commodity price.
Kiwis love their butter, and that's great because New Zealand produces some of the best butter in the world. But when the price of butter goes up, it's tough for some, particularly when many other grocery staples have also gone up and the heat goes on co-operative Fonterra, the country's main butter maker. Here the co-op explains why butter prices are so high right now.
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