BNZ lifts milk price forecast to $10.25/kgMS for 2025-26
A stronger than expected outlook for dairy has prompted one bank to lift its 2025-26 season forecast milk price by 75c to $10.25/kgMS.
Many in the rural sector would happily recycle Hansen’s notorious words to describe the past year in farming as it quickly comes to an end – 2022 has been a frustrating year.
Throughout most of this year, primary product prices have been relatively strong and have helped buffer farmers from the explosion in on-farm costs and growing red-tape. However, as the year nears its end, they now face clear downward pressure as economic conditions deteriorate offshore.
BNZ senior economist Doug Steel describes the signs as looking “ominous”.
He points out that over the past six months, global dairy prices have dropped 19%, offshore lamb and mutton product prices have fallen by as much as 27%, while world beef price indicators are down 23%. Meanwhile, a strengthening New Zealand dollar will cause primary producers more grief with commodity prices.
Poor immigration settings and a refusal by government and officials to make it easier to employ overseas workers has left many farmers and growers grossly understaffed. This has created a ticking time bomb in the sector, with numerous crops left unharvested and the potential of huge mental health issues as overworked staff face burnout.
The much hyped and vaunted ‘industry response’ on farm emissions mitigation was largely torn up by the Government late in the year. This left industry groups red-faced and impotent – with their supposed advocacy on behalf of farmers clearly shown not to have worked.
Levypayers, many of whom have long questioned the advocacy work of industry groups, are angry and upset. All the while, the sector’s lanyard class – who infest social media and have no skin in the game – keep lecturing farmers that ‘they know what’s best for them’ and keep parroting silly government demands. This only proves how just outof- touch and divorced from real farmers these parasitic, ticket-clipping oxygen thieves really are.
Meanwhile the Government has kept on with implementing many unworkable regulations, that may look good at the United Nations, but clearly do not make sense or are impossible to apply on farm. Take the new winter grazing rules or the proposed biodiversity regulations as just two examples.
Despite these challenges, farmers and growers have kept on keeping on. However, most will not look back on 2022 with any affection and look forward to changes coming in 2023.
