ANZ Warns of Milk Price Risks as New Dairy Season Begins
The new dairy season is kicking off with plenty of risks to the forecast farmgate price, both upside and downside, says ANZ agricultural economist Matt Dilly.
ANZ says the latest cut to its floating rates will be welcome news to many of its business and agri customers still feeling the effects of high inflation and interest rates.
ANZ NZ managing director for business and agri, Lorraine Mapu says most business and agri customers are on floating rates so changes should flow to them “fairly quickly”.
Following the Reserve Bank’s decision to cut the official cash rate (OCR) by 50 basis points this morning, ANZ cut its business floating rates a further 40-basis points, resulting in a total 55-basis point cut for the month after the bank earlier trimmed rates by 15-basis points.
“Since rates started to drop – both wholesale and the OCR – we’ve announced 135-basis points in cuts to our business and agri customers,” says Mapu. In that time, the OCR has fallen by 125-basis points.
Mapu says most of ANZ NZ’s business and agri customers were on floating rates so the changes should flow through to them relatively quickly, giving some debt relief and helping with cashflow.
In advance of the Budget, Finance Minister Nicola Willis put a clear damper on expectations and delivered accordingly.
Farmers should be cautiously optimistic as the 2026/27 season kicks off, says DairyNZ.
RaboResearch senior analyst Emma Higgins expects the 2026/27 dairy season to be another profitable one.
The new dairy season is kicking off with plenty of risks to the forecast farmgate price, both upside and downside, says ANZ agricultural economist Matt Dilly.
A potential showdown between the top two Federated Farmers leaders looms at the farmer lobby's annual meeting later this month.
FarmIQ Systems has developed a free land management app to help remove barriers to New Zealand farmers and growers adopting digital tools.

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