University of Waikato research reveals 2050 drought threats
New research could help farmers prepare for a future where summer rainfall is increasingly unpredictable and where drought risk is rising, no matter what.
“It will rain, it’s just a matter of when,” he says.
The positive attitude is despite Hutchings’ estimate the drought will cost his farm about $200,000 in lost production this year – and that’s counting on rain in February and March.
Minister for Primary Industries Nathan Guy made the drought declaration for Northland on February 3 at Hutchings’ farm, a Fonterra supplier.
“We haven’t had any significant rain since the end of October. We have had little bits but not a lot,” Hutchings told Dairy News.
Persistent wind has been equally as damaging as lack of rain.
About January 10 his farm made the decision to move all the herds to once-a-day milking.
They peak milk 700 cows but also decided to do some early culling and drying off to reduce the feed requirements, so they dropped the cows to 620.
The main reason was to conserve the bodyweight, Hutchings says. They have fed maize silage and palm kernel. They have had chicory crops to help them through the dryer summers but they are “not flash” because they too have not had much moisture.
“Probably two-thirds of their diet is other than pasture,” he says.
“But the cows have maintained body weight and we haven’t dropped significantly in production although we are lower than we would have been last year.
“We will probably drop about 25,000kgMS on last year.
“There are extra feed costs because we have brought in some baleage and palm kernel and the like.
“So the cost of the drought would be about the $200,000 mark. That is a significant cost.”
That estimated level of lost production would be counting on some autumn rain.
He has little kikuyu on his farm. “Even kikuyu around the north is not really coping because it is too dry. Kikuyu likes moisture and temperature to perform to its best but there hasn’t been enough moisture for even that to fire up.”
The improved milk price does make it “a little easier”.
“But a lot of farmers are still tight financially because of the last two years. They planned to use this year to pay back and catch up on deferred maintenance. The two previous years we were holding our costs right back to the bare minimum and there are lots of things that probably weren’t being done that should have been.
“With the higher payout it was time to do those jobs. But the drought has put a hold on some of that work as well.”
Most of the other farmers he speaks to in Northland are in the same boat and adopting the same approach.
“We’ve still got to stay positive. Now the drought has been declared there will be support in helping to source extra feed, and groups will be getting together to manage the drought and monitor farmers’ mental health.
“People are under a lot of pressure in these sorts of conditions. Farmers are quite a tight knit community. We talk to each other and help each other out. Facilities will be available to do that more and keep everyone positive.”
The social events such as the barbecues planned by the Rural Support Trust are helpful.
“They are a boost to everyone’s morale…. And at dinners at local community halls people get out and talk to everyone.
“A problem shared is a problem halved. You feel a lot better when you feel other people are going through the same sort of scenarios on their own properties. It helps everyone cope.”
Farmers must try to stay positive, he says.
“We will recover. Part of the challenge of farming, particularly farming in the north, is that we get adverse weather extremes – whether it is big dries or extreme wets. We try to be resilient, cope with it all and manage through them.”
