DairyNZ lifts breakeven milk price forecast to $8.68 for 2025/26 season
According to DairyNZ's latest Econ Tracker update, there has been a rise in the forecast breakeven milk price for the 2025/26 season.
The latest drop in the Global Dairy Trade price index will impact many farmers carrying a lot of debt, says DairyNZ chairman John Luxton.
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“Hopefully in 12 months there will be a much stronger industry going forward,” he told Dairy News.
The price index fell 9.3% in the latest GDT – the 10th consecutive fall, bringing it to levels not seen since 2002.
Whole milk powder, a crucial product for New Zealand, fell by 10.3% on average to US$1590/tonne.
Skim milk powder prices slumped by 14.4% to US$1419/t on average.
Anhydrous milk fat prices fell by 11.7%, butter by 6.1% and butter milk powder by 5.1%.
Luxton says NZ is very exposed to a thinly traded market.
“One outcome of the low GDT is likely to be a rapid lowering of our cost systems and probably some reduction in milk production out of NZ.
“When you look at the world market there isn’t a big overhang of surpluses despite what people are saying. The supply and demand is reasonably well balanced.”
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