Wednesday, 25 January 2012 14:58

Yield prospects span the extremes

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YIELD EXPECTATIONS of cropping farmers around the country range from very good to disappointing as the first headers roll.

While it's a late start in Canterbury, it's been worth the wait with some bumper crops of autumn sown barley coming in.

"I've spoken to three different dryland farmers and they've all been hitting 10t/ha where they'd normally only expect to get 7t," Federated Farmers Grain North Canterbury chairman Murray Rowlands told Rural News. "There are some huge volumes of straw underneath as well."

The high yields are creating a few storage headaches, particularly with some merchants dragging their feet

on prompt movement contracts, he notes. "Prompt means prompt, not a fortnight later."

While little has been headed, windrowed herbage seed in the area is looking promising, and process pea crops taken so far have done well too, he adds.

In Southland, Feds Grain chair John Gardyne is less bullish about yields but recent rains probably arrived just in time for many crops.

"We had four inches of rain at the weekend which could have saved the winter wheat a bit, and maybe even some of the autumn [sown] barley."

As of the middle of last week he'd only heard of one barley cut, autumn sown doing just under 10t/ha. "So the yields might be better than we think... But some of the grain's probably going to be a bit shrivelled and there's only half the straw there normally is."

The rain should have saved spring barley and oats, but winter feed crops are the worry.

"The big problem is swede and kale crops. They've either not germinated or germinated and died. If they don't come through in the next week they'll have to be sown with soft turnips or rapes."

In the south of the North Island Hew Dalrymple, Bulls, said harvest had hardly started last week.

"There's a tiny bit of early stuff been done but the bulk of the winter wheats and early spring barleys, they're all about two weeks away. Then there will be a massive delay until the late spring crops are ready."

Late sowings and excess rain mean for many it's looking "a very ugly season" he says. "There are a lot of yellow, drowned crops around, the late planted ones."

Maize is similarly variable. "The early stuff looks okay but there's maize that's only six inches high when it should be six feet."

In North Otago former world record wheat yield holder Chris Dennison took his first barley last week. "I'm delighted. Retriever winter barley's done just over 11t/ha I reckon... It's exceeded expectations."

Sold off the header at $440/t the crop was "going south."

He rates wheat prospects as "good but not exceptional."

"There's a huge amount of septoria in the crops which has crept up to the upper leaves over Christmas.

That's despite a robust fungicide programme."

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