increase font size
Westpac’s Imre Spreizer.
Demand for New Zealand dairy products should remain solid despite China’s mixed economic outlook, says Imre Speizer, Westpac.
He says China’s dominance as an export destination, particularly for whole milk powder, has been evident in official monthly trade data for some time.
Stats NZ figures for August confirm the trend of rising dairy export volumes since 2016, with China now importing about as much as it did at the previous peak in 2013.
Speizer says while the outlook for China’s economy is mixed, consumers are still buying dairy products.
“The outlook for China’s economy is mixed: over the remainder of 2019 we expect the pace of activity to slow further, but over the long term its various stimulatory initiatives should prove supportive.
“Against this backdrop, consumer activity has held up well, China so far successfully engineering a rebalancing of the economy towards domestic consumption.”
Last week’s Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction also reflected increase demand from China.
The GDT auction resulted in little change to prices overall: the price index rose 0.2%. The key export product, whole milk powder, fell 0.2%.
But Speizer notes that the multi-month trend in whole milk powder prices remains positive, with a total gain of 5.8% since bottoming in July.
Prices overall have been fairly stable since June, the headline index now sitting at the three-year average. Whole milk powder at $3141 is slightly above the three-year average of $3060.
Westpac is maintaining its payout forecast at $6.50/kgMS. Fonterra’s payout price range remains unchanged at $6.25-$7.25/kgMS.
Futures markets for the milk payout are now pricing $6.85, up from $6.75 last month ago but about the middle of the $6.65-$6.95 range prevailing since June.
One of the country's leading experts on China has praised the NZ Government for its handling of the recent incident with China over that country's cyber attack on two of our parliamentary institutions in 2021.
Hopes of NZ sheepmeat prices picking up anytime soon in the country's key export market of China looks highly unlikely.
Zespri has unveiled the award-winning KiwiBrothersTM mascots in China for the first time to market its large kiwifruit crop.
Authorities in China have clamped down on companies in that country which have been packaging and selling their own local fruit under the Zespri brand.
Are Chinese buyers returning to the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auctions?
A vet is calling for all animals to be vaccinated against a new strain of leptospirosis (lepto) discovered on New Zealand dairy farms in recent years.
Two major red meat sector projects are getting up to a combined $1.7 million in funding from the New Zealand Meat Board (NZMB).
Angus Barr and Tara Dwyer of The Wandle, Lone Star Farms in Strath Taieri have been named the Regional Supreme Winners at the Otago Ballance Farm Environment Awards in Dunedin.
OPINION: The distress that the politicians and bureaucrats are causing to the people of Wairoa and the wider Tairāwhiti is unforgivable.
Dairy
Rural banker Rabobank is partnering with Food Rescue Kitchen on a new TV series which airs this weekend that aims to shine a light on the real and growing issues of food waste, food poverty and social isolation in New Zealand.
OPINION: The new government has clearly signalled big cuts across the public service.
OPINION: Your canine crusader is not surprised by the recent news that New Zealand plant-based ‘fake meat’ business is in…
