Fewer, larger farms
The future will see a continuation of the trend to fewer and larger farms, most of which will be ‘family corporates’, says AgFirst chief executive James Allen.
He says farmers have consistently told him this is probably the wettest it's been for five or six years. The challenge, he says, is that rain and recent frosts are slowing down pasture growth, leaving farmers frustrated and asking what will they do next.
"They are just running out of options and probably the next two or three weeks is going to be the pinchpoint," he says.
Allen says tight feed supply is a concern. He says crop yields were reasonable but a lot of supplement did get used throughout the autumn.
"So we are going to end up in a situation where there is virtually no supplement left in the cupboard - it's probably not the challenge now but more the challenge for the summer," he says.
Allen says on a positive note we have seen that farmers have been conscious about not pugging paddocks like they might have done a decade ago. He says they have done really well and it's been largely positive. But he says there have been challenges about emptying effluent ponds on to saturated soils and running out of storage facilities.
He says farmers also appear to be managing winter grazing reasonably well, but says some need to work out if they require consents for this in future.
Allen's key message to farmers in the short term is to stick to some old, basic farming practices.
"Stick to old rotation lengths, because while it is tempting to speed up, that can be challenging if you get too quick, too early," he says.
"The other one is, if you are going to use supplements and you're short of feed now, this is the best time to use supplement because you are going to get the best milksolids response now. So when you have that early lactation, that's when you need to get to be getting those cows up and firing," he says.
An issue facing dairy farmers around the country is killing space. Allen says, while there aren't many cull cows going out in the Waikato, there are problems with booking space for bobby calves.
He says there are still staffing problems in the works due to Covid and they still haven't quite finished the lamb kill. Now it's a case of getting bobby calves killed and, with Silver Fern Farms running a booking system, unless farmers book early they have had to hold stock longer on farm.
Finally, Allen believes that in the light of new regulations and unpredictable adverse weather events, farmers are going to have to review their respective farming systems. He says they are going to have to start thinking about what sort of supplement reserves are needed to manage the dry summers. Also, question whether spring or autumn calving is the best option and look at stocking rates.
"With all the changes it's a good idea for farmers to rethink their farm systems. But if they do this, they shouldn't rush into it and make rash decisions, rather they should look at all the options and plan it carefully."
