Drought looms

AgFirst's Lochie MacGillivray, based in Hawke's Bay, told Rural News farmers are in 'no man's land' as they try to second guess what might happen with the weather in December/January. He says they are torn between acting now in anticipation of a drought or holding back in case it doesn't happen - and no one can say with any certainty what the outcome may be.

"The store lamb store price is slipping away and so for farmers to unload more animals, which in some cases could be absolutely the right decision, means they are gambling that there won't be substantial rain coming in January," he says. "But then what happens if we get some of those tropical cyclones in between the hot weather?"

MacGillivray says part of the problem is that it is neither a strong El Nino or a strong La Nina which makes modelling the outcome very difficult so at present the position could be described as 'neutral'. He says what the weather does in the next few weeks will be crucial. He points out that in the past few weeks temperatures have been in the 30s and winds have been strong.

But while livestock farmers are concerned about the weather, most of those in the horticulture sector are more than happy with the hot dry spell. Gordon McPhail of Leaderbrand, based in Gisborne, says the weather has resulted in one of their best years in a long time.

He says their sweet corn crop is nearly two weeks ahead of normal and they are planning to sell two million cobs of corn in the next few weeks. He says they are hoping the weather will stay as it is especially with their 350 hectares of grapes due for harvest in February.

McPhail says summer crops such as corn and watermelons are important for his company and they have hopes for good sales in the coming months.