University of Waikato research reveals 2050 drought threats
New research could help farmers prepare for a future where summer rainfall is increasingly unpredictable and where drought risk is rising, no matter what.
James Allen, Ag First, is predicting the season may end three to four weeks earlier than normal as the situation gets tight for dairy farmers in that region.
He says while most of the region had about 20mm of rain recently, which was very welcome, it certainly wasn't enough to be a drought breaker. He says although more rain is expected, that will not change the situation much.
"There isn't much feed at all and it's still dry. What is keeping farmers going is that maize crops are pretty good with some quite good yields coming off. Any spare maize that wasn't contracted has now been taken," he says.
Allen says around central and south Waikato it's very dry but in the hill towards Te Aroha some farmers report that they have 80mm of rain.
"But only a few pockets of the region have got lucky," he says.
Allen says dairy farmers in the region are generally coping pretty well compared to previous droughts as they are resilient and are just getting on with it. He says this is because the payout is high and they have had a lot of supplement on hand - prices for which have held and not gone crazy.
Allen says crunch time is looming and decisions on the culling of cows and drying off will be made from now on. He says people have been poking a lot of supplement into their cows and kept on milking but says the maths on this are really not working out.
"It's about focusing on next season so protecting pastures and cow condition is now the priority," he says.
Allen says farmers should be turning their minds to 2026 and working out the amount of supplement and pasture cover they have and set targets for the next season.
For dairy farmers generally in the main north island regions of Northland, Waikato and Taranaki the drought has taken its toll with the extreme dry weather. But Allen says down in Canterbury they are having an amazing season and he says Southland has also recovered well.
