Tuesday, 11 December 2018 10:55

Global milk supply forces down milk price

Written by 
John Monaghan. John Monaghan.

Persistently strong global milk supply forced Fonterra to cut its milk price forecast last week by about 20-25 cents.

The season’s farmgate milk price range is now $6 - $6.30/kgMS — down from $6.25 - $6.50/kgMS. The co-op is maintaining its forecast earnings per share range of 25-35 cents. 

It also confirmed it is negotiating to take back full ownership of the Darnum plant in Australia and is looking at selling Tip Top, although it wants it to remain a New Zealand business.

Fonterra chairman John Monaghan says the revision is due to the global milk supply remaining stronger relative to demand, which has driven a downward trend on the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index since May. 

“Since our October milk price update, production from Europe has flattened off the back of dry weather and rising feed costs. US milk volumes are still forecast to be up 1% for the year,” says Monaghan.

“Here in NZ we are maintaining our collections forecast of 1550 million kgMS. NIWA is saying it’s likely we will see an abnormal El Nino weather pattern over summer and this could impact our farmers’ milk production.

“Demand from China and Asia remains strong. However geopolitical disruption is impacting demand from countries that traditionally buy a lot of fat products from us.”

Fonterra chief executive Miles Hurrell says the latest forecast assumes demand will firm during the balance of the season, in line with predictions by other market commentators.

“Unknowns [persist] in the global demand and supply picture and we recommend farmers budget with ongoing caution. Fonterra’s advance rate has been set off a milk price of $6.15/kgMS.” 

Fonterra’s first quarter gross margin of $646 million is down $14m versus the same period last year and up slightly on a percentage basis from 16.6% to 17%. Revenue of $3.8 billion is down 4% and sales volumes were down 6% to 3.6b liquid milk equivalent (LME).

The co-op’s ingredients business, despite lower sales volumes, performed solidly during the first quarter with a gross margin of $273m, up $28m on last year. The consumer business also performed well with a gross margin of $310m, up $10m on last year and volumes were up 5%.

Hurrell says the co-op generally makes a smaller proportion of its total annual sales in the first quarter. “This means the results from the first quarter do not give much insight into earnings performance for the full year.”

More like this

Fonterra trims board size

Fonterra’s board has been reduced to nine - comprising six farmer-elected and three appointed directors.

Chinese strategy

OPINION: Fonterra may have sold its dairy farms in China but the appetite for collaboration with the country remains strong.

LCAs tackle false narratives

The quest to measure, report and make sense of the energy that goes into food production has come a long way in the past 25 years.

Featured

Fonterra trims board size

Fonterra’s board has been reduced to nine - comprising six farmer-elected and three appointed directors.

Boost for hort exports

The horticulture sector is a big winner from recent free trade deals sealed with the Gulf states, says Associate Agriculture Minister Nicola Grigg.

Better animal genetic gain system

A governance group has been formed, following extensive sector consultation, to implement the recommendations from the Industry Working Group's (IWG) final report and is said to be forming a 'road map' for improving New Zealand's animal genetic gain system.

National

OSPRI's costly software upgrade

Animal disease management agency OSPRI has announced sweeping governance changes as it seeks to recover from the expensive failure of…

Machinery & Products

BA Pumps expand

Cambridge based BA Pumps & Sprayers, specialists in New Zealand-made spraying equipment, has acquired Tokoroa Engineering’s product range, including the…

Entries open for innovation award

Fieldays and its renowned Innovation Awards are celebrating their 57th year, marking a longstanding tradition in the agricultural calendar, with…

» Latest Print Issues Online

Milking It

Chinese strategy

OPINION: Fonterra may have sold its dairy farms in China but the appetite for collaboration with the country remains strong.

Not fair

OPINION: The Listener's latest piece on winter grazing among Southland dairy farmers leaves much to be desired.

» Connect with Dairy News

» eNewsletter

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter