Lock the gate
OPINION: Big surprise, Fish & Game find themselves at odds with farmers, once again, and at risk of costing their members the one thing they value above all else – access across private land to fishable lakes and rivers.
Federated Farmers dairy chair Richard McIntyre believes farmers won't be too concerned with last week's Global Dairy Trade (GDT) price drop.
He points out that while the price drop across the board wasn't something farmers wished to wake up to, it was just one auction.
"We know the GDT auction has ebbs and flows throughout the year and a lot depends on demand and supply throughout the world," he told Dairy News.
McIntyre says milk processors factor these things in when forecasting milk price to their suppliers.
"This is just one auction. Farmers will be watching closely the next few auctions."
Last week's auction saw big falls in 'fats' prices: AMF prices dropped 10.7% and butter 10.2%. Whole milk powder prices dropped 4.3% to US$3,218/tonne. Overall prices still sit above long-term averages (3.6% over the 10-year average) although the key WMP price is now just below the 10-year average and almost 6% below its 5-year average.
Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold says futures markets had suggested a significant move down in prices was likely following the fall in prices at the GDT "Pulse" auction.
"There is a growing view that the significant run up in 'fats' prices - especially anhydrous milk fat - may have run their course and that the current higher price levels are encountering buyer resistance."
Southeast Asian buyers took up a higher proportion of product and Middle Eastern buyers stepped back.
Demand from China/North Asia appeared relatively stable in last week's auction.
Eckhold says such a large fall in prices naturally increases uncertainty on future auction developments.
"The fall in prices balances up our previous upside risks on our 2025 milk price forecast of $8.40. Futures market prices still look consistent with that kind of outcome."
Fonterra has a forecast midpoint of $8/kgMS.
McIntyre says an $8 milk price "is only break-even" for most farmers.
"For the average farmers, there's not huge amount of headroom with a $8 payout. If it drops, then that will make things quite uncomfortable for a lot of them," he says.
McIntyre says that while on-farm inflation is easing, interest rates remain high.
Applications are open for Horticulture New Zealand’s (HortNZ) 2025 scholarship programme with18 funding opportunities for students with a special interest in the commercial fruit and vegetable industry.
A lot depends on what happens in the next few months. That's the view of Federated Farmers Otago president, Luke Kane.
A group of volunteers from Lincoln University known as the 'Handy Landies' is among those descending on Otago to help farmers get their properties back to normal.
In another sign of improving agribusiness sentiment, two listed companies have lifted their forecast earnings for the year.
Three nominations have been received for two vacant director positions on meat processor, Alliance Group's board.
Canterbury milk processor Synlait says some farmer suppliers have been inquiring about the process to remove their cessation notices, handed in earlier this year.
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