increase font size
Richard McIntyre says that while the price drop across the board wasn’t something farmers wished to wake up to, it was just one auction.
Federated Farmers dairy chair Richard McIntyre believes farmers won't be too concerned with last week's Global Dairy Trade (GDT) price drop.
He points out that while the price drop across the board wasn't something farmers wished to wake up to, it was just one auction.
"We know the GDT auction has ebbs and flows throughout the year and a lot depends on demand and supply throughout the world," he told Dairy News.
McIntyre says milk processors factor these things in when forecasting milk price to their suppliers.
"This is just one auction. Farmers will be watching closely the next few auctions."
Last week's auction saw big falls in 'fats' prices: AMF prices dropped 10.7% and butter 10.2%. Whole milk powder prices dropped 4.3% to US$3,218/tonne. Overall prices still sit above long-term averages (3.6% over the 10-year average) although the key WMP price is now just below the 10-year average and almost 6% below its 5-year average.
Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold says futures markets had suggested a significant move down in prices was likely following the fall in prices at the GDT "Pulse" auction.
"There is a growing view that the significant run up in 'fats' prices - especially anhydrous milk fat - may have run their course and that the current higher price levels are encountering buyer resistance."
Southeast Asian buyers took up a higher proportion of product and Middle Eastern buyers stepped back.
Demand from China/North Asia appeared relatively stable in last week's auction.
Eckhold says such a large fall in prices naturally increases uncertainty on future auction developments.
"The fall in prices balances up our previous upside risks on our 2025 milk price forecast of $8.40. Futures market prices still look consistent with that kind of outcome."
Fonterra has a forecast midpoint of $8/kgMS.
McIntyre says an $8 milk price "is only break-even" for most farmers.
"For the average farmers, there's not huge amount of headroom with a $8 payout. If it drops, then that will make things quite uncomfortable for a lot of them," he says.
McIntyre says that while on-farm inflation is easing, interest rates remain high.
A rare weather double-whammy has seen many South Island farmers having to deal with unseasonal snow while still cut off from power supplies after an unprecedented windstorm.
OPINION: Recent media commentary from Southland Federated Farmers has raised concerns among our rural communities, particularly around Environment Southland’s approach to winter grazing inspections and nitrogen reporting. But let’s be clear, much of what’s been said simply doesn’t reflect reality.
OPINION: Environment Canterbury's (ECan) decision recently to declare a so-called “nitrate emergency” is laughable.
A shameless political stunt is how Federated Farmers is describing the Canterbury Regional Council decision to declare “a nitrate emergency” on the back of its latest annual groundwater quality survey.
Federated Farmers say Environment Canterbury's decision to declare a 'nitrate emergency' is a shameless political stunt that won't help anyone.
With the current situation in the European farm machinery market being described as difficult at best, it’s perhaps no surprise that the upcoming AgriSIMA 2026 agricultural machinery exhibition, scheduled for February 2026 at Paris-Nord Villepinte, has been cancelled.
The Meat Industry Association of New Zealand (MIA) has launched the first in-market activation of the refreshed Taste Pure Nature country-of-origin brand with an exclusive pop-up restaurant experience in Shanghai.
Jayna Wadsworth, daughter of the late New Zealand wicketkeeper Ken Wadsworth, has launched an auction of cricket memorabilia to raise funds for I Am Hope's youth mental health work.
As we move into the 2025/26 growing season, the Tractor and Machinery Association (TAMA) reports that the third quarter results for the year to date is showing that the stagnated tractor market of the last 18 months is showing signs of recovery.
DairyNZ chair Tracy Brown is urging dairy farmers to participate in the 2026 Levy vote, to be held early next year.
Beef + Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ) is calling for nominations for director roles in the Eastern North Island and Southern South Island electoral districts.
OPINION: Microplastics are turning up just about everywhere in the global food supply, including in fish, cups of tea, and…
OPINION: At a time when dairy prices are at record highs, no one was expecting the world's second largest dairy…
