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Rabobank’s dairy analyst Emma Higgins.
Rabobank says it doesn’t share Fonterra’s optimism about the international situation this season.
The bank predicts the farmgate milk price to dairy farmers will be $6.80/kgMS, not the $7.00/kgMS promised by Fonterra.
Emma Higgins, Rabobank’s dairy analyst, says the reason for the 20c difference is the unfolding situation in China where local milk production is rising.
Higgins says while a softening of the New Zealand dollar has been helpful, Rabobank sees weakness in the second half of the 2018-19 season because the rise in local Chinese milk production is likely to reduce its imports of milk products, affecting NZ’s whole milk powder.
“NZ places a lot of emphasis on China; it’s our largest trading partner in dairy. That market has been really supportive in the price rally we have seen in this calendar year; it has also helped to underpin a recovery from the dairy downturn a couple of seasons ago.
“Also helping NZ in the last couple of years have been hot summers in China which reduced local production by about 6%. But assuming the current season improves we expect NZ milk production to rise which in turn will reduce China’s need for imports from countries such as NZ.”
OPINION: There is zero chance that someone who joined Fonterra as a lobbyist, then served as a general manager of Fonterra's nutrient management programme, and sat on the board of Export NZ, a division of lobbyist group Business New Zealand, doesn't understand that local butter (and milk and cheese) prices are set by the international commodity price.
Kiwis love their butter, and that's great because New Zealand produces some of the best butter in the world. But when the price of butter goes up, it's tough for some, particularly when many other grocery staples have also gone up and the heat goes on co-operative Fonterra, the country's main butter maker. Here the co-op explains why butter prices are so high right now.
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Kiwis love their butter, and that's great because New Zealand produces some of the best butter in the world. But when the price of butter goes up, it's tough for some, particularly when many other grocery staples have also gone up and the heat goes on co-operative Fonterra, the country's main butter maker. Here the co-op explains why butter prices are so high right now.
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