Thursday, 12 July 2018 12:55

China production could trim milk price

Written by  Peter Burke
Rabobank’s dairy analyst Emma Higgins. Rabobank’s dairy analyst Emma Higgins.

Rabobank says it doesn’t share Fonterra’s optimism about the international situation this season.

The bank predicts the farmgate milk price to dairy farmers will be $6.80/kgMS, not the $7.00/kgMS promised by Fonterra.

Emma Higgins, Rabobank’s dairy analyst, says the reason for the 20c difference is the unfolding situation in China where local milk production is rising.

Higgins says while a softening of the New Zealand dollar has been helpful, Rabobank sees weakness in the second half of the 2018-19 season because the rise in local Chinese milk production is likely to reduce its imports of milk products, affecting NZ’s whole milk powder.

“NZ places a lot of emphasis on China; it’s our largest trading partner in dairy. That market has been really supportive in the price rally we have seen in this calendar year; it has also helped to underpin a recovery from the dairy downturn a couple of seasons ago. 

“Also helping NZ in the last couple of years have been hot summers in China which reduced local production by about 6%. But assuming the current season improves we expect NZ milk production to rise which in turn will reduce China’s need for imports from countries such as NZ.”

More like this

Fonterra R&D: Innovation needs more than just PhDs

Common sense and good human judgement are still a key requirement for the super highly qualified staff working at one of New Zealand's largest and most important research facilities - Fonterra's R&D Centre at Palmerston North.

Misguided campaign

OPINION: Last week, Greenpeace lit up Fonterra's Auckland headquarters with 'messages from the common people' - that the sector is polluting the environment.

Featured

National

Machinery & Products

Farming smarter with technology

The National Fieldays is an annual fixture in the farming calendar: it draws in thousands of farmers, contractors, and industry…

» Latest Print Issues Online

Milking It

110,000 visitors!

OPINION: It's official, Fieldays 2025 clocked 110,000 visitors over the four days.

Sticky situation

OPINION: The Federated Farmers rural advocacy hub at Fieldays has been touted as a great success.

» Connect with Dairy News

» eNewsletter

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter