The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service predicts corn growers will harvest 35.4 million ha, down 2% from its June estimate and the lowest level since 2006.
Despite planting the largest number area in corn in 75 years, growers are forecast to produce 10.8 billion bushels, down 13% from 2011. A bushel (unit of volume) of corn weighs 14.5kg; a soybean bushel and a wheat bushel weigh 27.2kg.
Soybean growers, also greatly affected by the drought, are forecast to produce 2.69 billion bushels, down 12% from 2011.
Purdue Extension agricultural economist Chris Hurt says the USDA’s August crop production report paints a bleak picture as Indiana and other eastern Corn Belt states suffer through the worst drought since at least 1988.
The report says Indiana’s corn crop will average about 247 bushels/ha, down from 360 bushels in 2011. The state’s soybeans are projected to yield 91 bushels/ha, down from 111 bushels a year earlier.
“These are remarkably low numbers, especially the corn,” Hurt says. “Indiana is the worst of the major production states in corn production. We knew that early on. It started here and then spread to the west.”
The industry had expected bumper crops in Indiana and across the Midwest when farmers began planting earlier than normal this spring, in then favorable weather – unseasonable warmth and little rain. Forecasts were for a corn crop of 14 billion bushels, nearly one billion more than the previous record.
But conditions soon deteriorated for crops as the heat intensified and fields got little rain over the next three months. Hopes for a bountiful harvest evaporated as the drought worsened weekly, preventing many corn and soybean crops from developing enough to produce strong yields.
By early August, 73% of the state’s corn crop and 53% of soybeans were in poor-to-very-poor condition. Because of that, USDA estimates Indiana’s 2012 corn crop will yield nearly 38% below trend yields.
“This is the worst departure from trend yields in Indiana in at least 75 years,” Purdue Extension corn specialist Bob Nielsen says.
Even with short corn and soybean crops, Hurt said growers could still find themselves in a profitable situation, depending on final yields and crop insurance coverage.
“”Corn revenues are up 64% from what we expected in the spring and soybean revenues are up 24%. Some growers might have an opportunity to take advantage of the higher prices.
“Crop insurance will be another factor. We estimate 65-75% of Indiana’s corn and soybean crops are insured. Those compensation dollars will be large this year.”
And wheat production, 85% complete by July 29, remains largely unaffected by the drought and is forecast at 2.27 billion bushels, up 13%.
