'Prepare for more pine trees'
Prepare for more pine trees. That's the message from North Otago farmer Jane Smith following the new methane emission targets recently announced by the Government.
The word of a scientist, or maybe a whole panel of them, whose livelihood and whose future funding relies on the message they deliver, looking to make a specific point or even report to the government, must be viewed with a healthy dose of scepticism.
I openly disclose that I am a member of the Methane Science Accord, a sheep farmer and a supplier of genetics to many other farmers, therefore my livelihood depends on the viability of sheep farming and a halt to the blanket pine tree scourge and talk of costly and ridiculous methane mitigation methods which are effectively a tax.
Does this mean I have a conflict of interest with the truth when it comes to the science of GHGs and methane in particular? Definitely not, and the reason is that my greatest concern is for the economic future of our wonderful nation; what is good for me is good for every New Zealander.
A prosperous rural sector with full employment and vibrant schools and communities is and always has been the fuel which this country runs on.
New Zealand used to be a nation of leaders, from conquering mountains and oceans to splitting atoms and agricultural innovation, but sadly we have let the opportunity slip to inform and lead the world around the physics of GHG emissions, particularly ruminant methane.
Worse than that, not a single politician or farming industry 'advocate' will address the one simple question that would end the pointless waste of hundreds of millions of dollars and the prospect of a 'tax' on livestock farmers. The question is: How much warming are our ruminants causing? Just answer the damn question!
Our industry advocates and politicians have a blind obsession with emissions but will not stop to consider what effect those emissions have on atmospheric temperature, even though their own scientific advisors have told them the answer is at best 4 millionths of a degree per year (effectively zero!).
I don't want to lay out all the science that makes a mockery of the NZ GHG emissions reduction targets, except to say that even if one doesn't accept that ruminants are causing no warming, the UN body which basically gives the Government the guidelines to follow has said the warming effect of methane that NZ uses in its models is overstated by 300-400%.
So, what is wrong with our people, what is in their heads... apart from rocks?
Here's another couple of questions:
1. How can we progress our economy with a PM that has stated he is 'fixated on net zero'? Professor Michael Kelly of Oxford University has calculated that the cost of achieving the PM's dream of net zero by 2050 will be well in excess of $500 billion! That's $4,000 per man, woman and child in NZ, every year for 25 years.
2. If we need to rush through a new Gene Technology Bill, apparently to give our pastoral sector some 'market advantage' and to mitigate our ruminant emissions (which are causing no warming) with novel grasses and rumen altering biotech, then why are the submissions being heard by the Health Committee?
3. Despite the Government telling us the country will face a $24 billion dollar penalty if we con't meet our emissions targets, it turns out that is not actually true - there is no penalty to pay, just the risk of losing exports to work countries, so exactly which are those countries?
4. It has been stated that a biotech bolus inserted into the rumen of cattle would likely cost over $100/hd/yr. There are approximately 10 million cattle in NZ, so the cost is a billion dollar per year. Tell me how that makes any sense.
This is a call to action from every New Zealander with an ounce of common sense to lobby your MPs and industry advocates, ring them and email them, tell them to wake up and answer the damn question.
Hamish De Lautour is a Wairarapa sheep farmer and member of the Methane Science Accord.
