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Todd McClay.
New Zealand can survive without the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal in the short term, says Wellington-based trade expert Charles Finny.
Speaking at Federated Farmers Dairy council meeting in Wellington last week, he said it would have been good to have TPP, but bilateral deals with other countries involved in TPP are now possible.
He singled out Mexico; Trade Minister Todd McClay was in Mexico City last week to discuss a potential trade deal.
Finny, who stepped in to speak on behalf of McClay at the meeting, says the Mexicans are “really angry” with US President Donald Trump’s stance on NAFTA.
“The Mexicans want to send a message to the White House; that’s the reason Todd McClay is flying to Mexico City.”
He points out that in the 1980s – before NAFTA was negotiated – Mexico was an important market for dairy industry.
“Then NAFTA came in and the Americans got free access and we got slapped with tariffs, losing market share.”
Finny also singled out Sri Lanka, where a trade deal would benefit dairy.
“I see two really good opportunities with Sri Lanka and Mexico.”
While negotiations are going on with India and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Finny sees no evidence to expect fast outcomes.
On Europe, he remains dubious that a great deal for dairy can be achieved. However, the UK could hold promise.
Finny says the UK is desperate for runs on the board and “if we do our jobs properly, and if we are in front of the queue, there is a good opportunity for NZ to do a good deal there.”
The UK was the biggest market for NZ agricultural products in the middle of the last century, so that could be “enormously exciting for us”, he says.
But Finny warned not to crack the champagne yet; because a trade deal with the UK won’t be a straightforward one.
He says since the UK is still part of Europe it cannot legally start negotiations on a FTA with any country.
“They have to extract themselves from the EU; one of the issues that will come up during the extraction process is what happens to the quotas negotiated for dairy and other products.”
Finny expects a trade deal with the UK to take “many years”.
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