Lactalis in front to acquire Fonterra’s Australian dairy assets after ACCC clearance
The world's largest dairy company may be in pole position to acquire Fonterra's Australian assets.
Most of the major banks are predicting a drop between 4% and 8% – much higher than Fonterra's current forecast of a 2-3% fall.
Rabobank is picking a fall of 8%, ASB forecasts 5% and BNZ picks 4%.
ASB rural economist Nathan Penny says the market has been focused on Fonterra's reduction in volumes on the GDT but will soon turn its focus on production and this is looking particularly weak.
"We've now factored in a 5% fall in production. Historically, that [would be] the largest fall since 1999... On that basis we would expect prices to continue to rise," Penny says.
Aggressive cow culling by farmers is evidence "both in numbers and what we are hearing around the traps".
"If you look at cow slaughter, the data is running well ahead of last year. With US beef exports we are going to breach the quota for the first time since 2004, I believe, and that is largely down to the dairy cow cull.
"Farmers are likely to cull more once they get through calving and peak milk production so they are continuing to think along the lines of reducing their herd size."
And spring has been poor, particularly down south, he says.
"In Southland they are struggling with temperatures and grass growth. The other factor is farmers using supplementary feed sparingly. So adding those things up, they are all effectively bowing to production being pretty weak. El Nino is another risk that hasn't been factored in."
Rabobank's Emma Higgins says supply could fall more – maybe up to 8% - as farmers cull, cut back the use of supplementary feed and take other measures to reduce costs.
Herd improvement company LIC has ended the 2024-25 financial year in a strong position - debt-free and almost quadrupling its net profit.
There's been widespread support from the primary sector for the Government's move to put the brakes on local authorities to do any more work on planning changes ahead of major changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA).
Rural health advocates say the Government's decision to establish a new medical school at the University of Waikato augurs well for the rural sector.
People affected by the recent two severe flood events in the Tasman district are weary and exhausted trying to deal with the devastation on their farms and orchards, according to the head of the Rural Support Trust (RST) in the region.
New Zealand milk production is off to a strong start, with the first month of the 2025/26 dairy season recording a whopping 17.8% jump in milk production, compared to the previous season.
With adverse weather set to rain down on the Top of the South, the Bay of Plenty and parts of Northland, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says farmers, foresters, and growers need to prepare for possible challenges.
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