When will global milk production hit a tipping point?
With global milk prices falling, the question is when will key exporting countries reach a tipping point where production starts to dip.
The NZ dairy season is into its second month and last week’s Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction was the third for the 2020-21 season. There are 22 more GDT auctions planned before the season ends May 31 next year.
RaboResearch analyst Michal Harvey says the key selling season for New Zealand is still a few weeks away but Fonterra (and other exporters with GDT plus price offerings) can lock away some product at decent prices.
“But we would still be cautious about calling a sustained lift in prices. The underlying fundamentals will mean global markets will need to price in high stocks on the buy and sell side, lower dairy demand in emerging economies as incomes are negatively impacted, and growing milk pools in all key export regions.”
The GDT price index rose 8.3% - the single biggest lift in the index price since late 2016. Most notably, the whole milk powder index price jumped 14% to US$3208/tonne.
Harvey says this takes the WMP index price back to a similar level to that of the start of the year, and remarkably 5% higher than at the same time last year.
