Wednesday, 21 December 2011 14:11

Confidence eases, especially in Hort

Written by 

FARMER CONFIDENCE has waned slightly in the past quarter.

Results of Rabobank’s latest survey show 33% expect the agricultural economy to improve in the next 12 months, compared to 35% in the survey three months earlier.

Similarly, those expecting conditions to worsen rose from 10% to 12%.

“Farmers are well aware that they are not immune from the financial instability at play in the Northern hemisphere,” says Rabobank general manager New Zealand, Ben Russell.

Of those expecting the agricultural economy to improve, 54% say rising commodity prices are the reason. That sentiment is strongest among sheep and beef farmers, with 56% pointing to improved prices, but 50% of dairy farmers also now expect better prices, compared to 37% in the previous survey.

The horticulture sector is least confident, with 30% expecting the economic outlook to deteriorate.

Russell says ongoing optimism among sheep and beef farmers reflects recent strong farm-gate returns, including for wool.

Dairy farmers remain cautiously optimistic with 42% (down from 46%) expecting an improvement in their business’ performance and only 10% expecting it to worsen.

“While dairy farmer confidence has weakened slightly, this is likely to be an expectation that record high prices are unlikely to persist into 2012 with the gradual softening  of global dairy trade prices over recent months,” says Russell.

But confidence in the horticultural sector continues to be dogged by Psa in kiwifruit, with more farmers expecting a worsening of business performance than not for the third survey running.

Overall, optimism in farm business performance is reflected in investment expectations, with 33%, (up from 30% last quarter) expecting to increase total farm investment and 59% expecting to hold it steady, compared to 63% in the hold steady category in the previous survey.

Of an overall 8% expecting to decrease investment, horticulturalists stand out as the exception, with 39% expecting to reduce investment, compared to 16% in the previous quarter.

The Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey has been conducted since 2000 and is administered by independent research agency TNS, interviewing a panel of approximately 450 farmers each quarter.

More like this

Dairy buoyant

The Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey found farmers' expectations for their own business operations had also improved, with the net reading on this measure lifting to +37% from +19% previously.

Farmer confidence flowing back

Confidence is flowing back into the farming sector on the back of higher dairy and meat prices, easing interest rates and a more farmer-friendly regulatory environment.

Featured

‘Nanobubble’ trial trims irrigation water usage

North Canterbury dairy farmer and recently-elected deputy chair of DairyNZ, Cameron Henderson, is enjoying a huge reduction in irrigation water use after converting a pivot irrigator to drag perforated drip tubes across the ground instead of elevated sprinkler heads.

Editorial: Elusive India FTA

OPINION: Without doubt, a priority of the Government this year will be to gain traction on the elusive free trade deal with India.

Sport star to talk at expo

Rugby league legend Tawera Nikau is set to inspire, celebrate and entertain at the East Coast Farming Expo's very popular Property Broker's Evening Muster.

National

Sweet or sour deal?

Not all stakeholders involved in the proposed merger of honey industry groups - ApiNZ and Unique Manuka Factor Honey Association…

Machinery & Products

Loosening soil without fuss

Distributed in New Zealand by Carrfields, Grange Farm Machinery is based in the Holderness region of East Yorkshire – an…

JCB unveils new models

The first of the UK’s agricultural trade shows was recently held at the NEC Centre in Birmingham.

» Latest Print Issues Online

The Hound

Times have changed

OPINION: Back in the 1960s and '70s, and even into the '80s, successive National government Agriculture Ministers and Trade Ministers…

Hallelujah moment

OPINION: The new Public Service Commissioner Sir Brian Roche has just had the hallelujah moment of the 21st century in…

» Connect with Rural News

» eNewsletter

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter