Global trade war 'bad news for NZ'
A global trade war beckons, which is bad news for a small open economy like New Zealand, warns Mark Smith ASB senior economist.
ASB’s October RBNZ Preview was one example: “We are increasingly concerned that the OCR is very high relative to a more neutral level in an economy where inflation pressures and capacity have in effect already normalised.”
Translation: The RBNZ has crashed the economy and urgently needs to cut the OCR
In the first week of October, ASB was expecting two 50bp cuts in 2024 (last week the RBNZ dropped the OCR by 50bp) and a further 25bp cut in February 2025- with one of their economists saying, “the largest regret now facing the RBNZ is moving too little, too late”.
