University of Waikato research reveals 2050 drought threats
New research could help farmers prepare for a future where summer rainfall is increasingly unpredictable and where drought risk is rising, no matter what.
Brendan Attrill, chair of Federated Farmers Sharefarm owners group and also a farm owner and farm consultant, says dire conditions in many dairying regions are putting a huge strain on farming relationships. He says the worst hit areas are some of the biggest milk producing regions in the country - especially the Waikato and Taranaki but also Northland and parts of the Manawatu.
He says the worst hit contract milkers will be those who are paid directly by the milk processing companies.
"Some farmers have had to dry their cows off as early as mid-March because of the lack of feed and contract milkers who are paid by the processors may not get a payment of any sort until the new season starts and that could mean up to four months without any income," he says.
Brendan Attrill says slightly better off are contract milkers who receive a monthly cheque from the farmer. He says on the all the farmers he supervises, he insists on contracts of this nature. He says there will invariably be tensions between some farm owners and contract milkers but the situation that both find themselves in is no ones fault.
"It is really just an outcome driven by hungry cows and a lack of feed for them," he says.
In his role as chair of the sharefarm owners group, Attrill says he's been reaching out to owners to see if they can help the contract milkers through the present short term crisis. He says, by and large, farm owners should be able to help by virtue of the fact that they have substantial equity in their businesses and the fact that the milk payout is good. He says so far he's seen very little resistance from farm owners to help what he describes as good talented young people that the dairy industry needs.
"We are messaging out to owners to day 'can you do a couple of things for us'. Firstly, you can sit down and have a cup of coffee with your contract milker and just have general positive discussions about the situation. The second thing is, we want is the contract milkers to come to the owners with a clear plan as to how they are going to manage the cows through and particularly if they are tight on feed and supplements at the moment," he says.
Attrill says the third thing is to try and encourage owners to help out their contract milkers financially. He says this could involve supporting them to pay their staff or to put fuel in the farm bikes.
"We want to keep the contract milkers in the industry and if farm owners could just consider making a small top up payment to their contract milker every month for the next three or four months that would be great. Farm owners need to realise that the contract milker is a business partner and if they stick with them they will be rewarded in the long term," he says.
Attrill says he's had discussions with all the banks and rural lenders and they understand the situation and are prepared to help.
Ongoing Issues
Just because it has started raining doesn't mean that the drought is over - the effects from a farmer's perspective are ongoing.
Feds Dairy Chair in Taranaki, Sam Ebbett, who farms near Inglewoood, says the weather has been kind to him. He says the rains have come from the north and east and his pasture is in good shape. He says he'll milk on for the next few months without any trouble. The present weather systems tend to dump the rain inland and miss the coastal areas of the province.
"Essentially the closer you are to Mt Taranaki, the better off you are," he says.
But it's a different story along the whole of the Taranaki coast from as far north as Warea right down to Whanganui. Farmers in these areas have received between 20 and 40 mm in the last few weeks, which in theory goes some way to being a 'drought breaker'.
But Brendan Attrill says there's another problem.
"Grass grub, which has hit a number of farms in South Taranaki, and so for many farmers it's a double whammy," he says.
The challenge now is restoring both drought and grass grub damaged pastures.
"Soil moisture levels in the drought zones are terrible but soil temperatures are excellent," he says.
