Wednesday, 16 March 2016 08:54

GDT down 2.9% against expectations

Written by 

The GlobalDairyTrade price index was down 2.9% overnight, despite expectations of a small rise.

 

The whole milk powder index was down 0.8% with an average price of US$1971/MT.

ASB's rural economist Nathan Penny says the fall may reflect a similar recent price reversal in other commodity markets such as oil.

Yesterday's European Union support measures may have also led to buyers taking a step back.

Penny says ASB is maintaining its 2015/16 and 2016/17 milk price forecasts at $3.90/kgMS and $6/kgMS, respectively.
He says the GDT fall was across most products, with six of the seven the bank monitors posting price declines.

"Moreover, the dip contrasted with our expectations of a modest rise. Based on yesterday's futures prices, we had expected an overall rise in the 1%-5% range, and for a 7% rise for WMP.

"WMP fell a touch, posting a 0.8% decrease. Anhydrous Milk Fat, Butter Milk Powder and cheese all posted circa 6% drops, while SMP and butter were down close to the overall fall."

Penny says the price dip follows weaker commodity prices. For example, overnight Brent oil futures lost further ground taking prices back to around $38 per barrel, after ending last week above $40.

In addition, yesterday's EU farmer support announcements may have further muddied the dairy price waters. While the jury is out announcements' impact on prices, buyers are likely to have taken a step back to see how they play out in markets. Indeed, the price falls for near-term contracts against the rises for some longer-term contracts, is consistent with this approach from buyers."

Key GDT results were:
AMF index down 6.5%, average price US$3,014/MT; Butter index down 2.8%, average price US$2,733/MT; BMP index up 6.4%, average price US$1,545/MT;
Ched index down 5.6%, average price US$2,441/MT; LAC index up 0.8%, average price US$624/MT; RenCas index down 7.0%, average price US$4,083/MT; SMP index down 2.5%, average price US$1,731/MT;
WMP index down 0.8%, average price US$1,971/MT

More like this

Cynical politics

OPINION: There is zero chance that someone who joined Fonterra as a lobbyist, then served as a general manager of Fonterra's nutrient management programme, and sat on the board of Export NZ, a division of lobbyist group Business New Zealand, doesn't understand that local butter (and milk and cheese) prices are set by the international commodity price.

Why is butter so expensive in New Zealand? Fonterra explains

Kiwis love their butter, and that's great because New Zealand produces some of the best butter in the world. But when the price of butter goes up, it's tough for some, particularly when many other grocery staples have also gone up and the heat goes on co-operative Fonterra, the country's main butter maker. Here the co-op explains why butter prices are so high right now.

Featured

T&G Global returns to profitability

Fresh produce grower and exporter T&G Global has overturned last year’s dismal performance by reporting a half year net profit of $1.7 million.

Rural backlash over plan to cut police staffing

Federated Farmers North Canterbury president Bex Green says two public meetings held this week should have made it loud and clear that rural families and businesses are concerned about proposed staffing changes at NZ Police.

DairyNZ thanks farm staff

August 6 marks Farm Worker Appreciation Day, a moment to recognise the dedication and hard mahi of dairy farm workers across Aotearoa - and DairyNZ is taking the opportunity to celebrate the skilled teams working on its two research farms.

Editorial: Getting RMA settings right

OPINION: The Government has been seeking industry feedback on its proposed amendments to a range of Resource Management Act (RMA) national direction instruments.

National

Machinery & Products

» Latest Print Issues Online

Milking It

Fatberg

OPINION: Sydney has a $12 million milk disposal problem.

Synlait snag

OPINION: Canterbury milk processor Synlait's recovery seems to have hit another snag.

» Connect with Dairy News

» eNewsletter

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter