Dairy sector profit still on the table, but margin gap tightens
DairyNZ’s latest Econ Tracker update shows most farms will still finish the season in a positive position, although the gap has narrowed compared with early season expectations.
Deputy Prime Minister Bill English has acknowledged the dairy industry's contribution to pulling New Zealand out of the 2008-09 recession.
Speaking at the recent DairyNZ Farmers Forum in Hamilton, he recounted how the dairy industry propped up the economy for five years.
NZ went into recession at the beginning of 2008. Then along came the global financial crisis, plunging the country deeper into recession.
"When [National was] elected it all looked grim," he says. "But in the five year period when the payout peaked at over $8/kgMS the dairy industry was part of the economy generating the revenue, paying the tax, helping us stave off pressure on the government books and in particular generating confidence in rural NZ.
"It's something of an untold story."
He agreed the record payout in 2013-14 brought a few "structural issues" which the industry is now trying to adjust to. But he says NZ benefited enormously from the dairy industry at a time of need.
English, who is from Southland, says he has seen the development of the industry in his home region. Smart Waikato and Taranaki farmers turned up 20 years ago and transformed the landscape.
And the difficult days faced by sheep and beef farmers have turned around.
"We are in the situation where most other primary production industries are doing very well and the dairy industry is under a bit of pressure."
English was recently in the UK and Europe for meetings with their finance ministers and central bank governors.
He came back glad "we have our problems and not theirs". Europe is under pressure from low growth, negative interest rates and unwelcome migration.
"Back here we have a more solvable set of problems," he says. "The culture of our politics and dairy industry is such that people can get on with solving the problems."
English says though the dairy industry is down, the beef, kiwifruit and wine sectors are doing well.
In 2015 dairy exports were down by $3 billion; total exports went up $2b.
English says the Government thinks the dairy industry will remain an engine of growth.
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