Friday, 26 July 2013 10:42

Payout rise on the cards?

Written by 

Fonterra is being tipped to raise its forecast payout for the 2013-14 season.


Westpac economist Nathan Penny says 2013-14 is shaping up as a bumper dairy season.


"World prices remain very high, while growing conditions have been generally very good since the drought broke. The icing on the cake is a lower currency," he says.


The bank has raised its forecast to $7.40/kgMS, from $6.50/kgMS. It expects Fonterra to follow suit. Fonterra's board meets on Wednesday.


Penny says Fonterra may even go north of its $7.40/kgMS forecast. He also expects the co-op to update its production outlook.


"We predict a rebound in production from drought of around 5% on last year's level, while Fonterra has previously signalled production growth of 2%," he says.


Penny is surprised global dairy prices have stayed at very high levels.


"To be frank, we are surprised by that. This time three months ago, we expected world prices would be around 7% lower by the end of July.


"Tight world supply has contributed to the buoyant prices. However, we doubt that the market has gotten its head around prospects for growth in New Zealand production this season. We predict a rebound in production from drought of around 5% on last year's level. Fonterra has previously signalled production growth of 2% - any lingering difference in production outlooks, following Fonterra's update next week, may explain much of any difference in milk price forecasts."

More like this

Fonterra's Whareroa Wins Directors Award

Fonterra's Whareroa site took home the prestigious Directors Award at the co-op's 'Oscars of Manufacturing', while Clandeboye led the way with multiple wins at this year's Best Site Cup.

Smith V Fonterra

OPINION: To a chorus of crying greenies, and not a minute too soon, the Government has moved to put the courts back in their place through proposed amendments to the Climate Change Response Act 2002, intending to limit climate litigation claims such as Smith v Fonterra, in the interests of providing greater certainty for vital industry.

Featured

Pāmu Opens Farm Gates for Summer Open Farm Days

State farmer Pāmu is opening its farm gates this summer in an effort to give the rural sector the opportunity to see how large-scale, multi-system farming is delivering productivity and profitability across New Zealand.

DairyNZ: Waikato Farmers Need Certainty on PC1 Rules

DairyNZ says Waikato farmers need certainty on Plan Change 1, but they say that certainty must be matched with practical, workable rules and a clear transition that doesn't get ahead of the new resource management system currently under review.

National

Machinery & Products

 

 

» Latest Print Issues Online

The Hound

Great Idea!

OPINION: Central Hawke's Bay farmer Mark Warren recently told the Hawke's Bay Times it's time for a conversation about allowing…

No Choice

OPINION: A nation that relies as heavily as NZ does on functional global shipping lanes will have to do its…

» Connect with Rural News

» eNewsletter

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter