Friday, 26 July 2013 10:42

Payout rise on the cards?

Written by 

Fonterra is being tipped to raise its forecast payout for the 2013-14 season.


Westpac economist Nathan Penny says 2013-14 is shaping up as a bumper dairy season.


"World prices remain very high, while growing conditions have been generally very good since the drought broke. The icing on the cake is a lower currency," he says.


The bank has raised its forecast to $7.40/kgMS, from $6.50/kgMS. It expects Fonterra to follow suit. Fonterra's board meets on Wednesday.


Penny says Fonterra may even go north of its $7.40/kgMS forecast. He also expects the co-op to update its production outlook.


"We predict a rebound in production from drought of around 5% on last year's level, while Fonterra has previously signalled production growth of 2%," he says.


Penny is surprised global dairy prices have stayed at very high levels.


"To be frank, we are surprised by that. This time three months ago, we expected world prices would be around 7% lower by the end of July.


"Tight world supply has contributed to the buoyant prices. However, we doubt that the market has gotten its head around prospects for growth in New Zealand production this season. We predict a rebound in production from drought of around 5% on last year's level. Fonterra has previously signalled production growth of 2% - any lingering difference in production outlooks, following Fonterra's update next week, may explain much of any difference in milk price forecasts."

More like this

El Niño Summer: Terravest on Preparing Dairy Sheds Now

After a winter of frozen pipework and refrigeration call-outs, Terravest chief executive Kip Bodle and chief operating officer Luke Walker explain why this El Niño summer calls for a different kind of preparation, before the first heatwave finds the weak points for you.

Why 'Fork to Farm' Beats Farm to Fork, Expert Says

In the past, much has been made of the concept of farm to fork, but an Australian expert in food science and marketing with experience in the dairy industry, Dr Angeline Achariya, says the reverse of this slogan is critical to win modern day consumers.

Featured

Editorial: Drones Are Not Toys

OPINION: David Seymour and James Meager's plan to make it easier for farmers and orchardists to operate drones can best be described a 'courageous' move.

Opuha Dam Commissions New Valve in Major Flood Safety Upgrade

Opuha Dam's ability to protect South Canterbury communities from major flooding has taken a significant step forward, with Opuha Water Limited (OWL) successfully commissioning a new outlet valve capable of releasing record volumes of water from the dam ahead of a weather event.

Freshwater Farm Plan Changes Welcomed by Primary Sector

There's been widespread support from the primary sector for the Government's announcement on changes to freshwater farm plans that come under the Natural Environment Bill, which is now set to replace the existing RMA.

National

Machinery & Products

» Latest Print Issues Online

The Hound

'LinkedIn Greens'

OPINION: The same mainstream media muppets that brought you Jacindamania in 2017 have been flat out pimping for the Opportunities…

UK Warning

OPINION: Your old mate reckons the atrocious way farmers in the UK are treated by their lords and masters in…

» Connect with Rural News

» eNewsletter

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter