Ray Smith: Dairy still has growth potential despite flat export outlook
Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) Director General Ray Smith believes there is potential for an increase in dairy farming in New Zealand.
The government is hailing the news that food and fibre exports are predicted to reach a record $62 billion in the next year.
This is up 3% on last year’s record of $60.3 billion.
Agricultural Minister Todd McClay says this is an outstanding result considering it’s being such a tough year with weather impacting locally and global conditions continuing to be as challenging as ever.
The key growth movements come in the following areas
McClay says the sector is well positioned to capitalise on robust demand and strong prices, supported by good growing conditions and higher production in most areas.
“Farmer confidence is back up, farm profitability is improving for many producers, and New Zealand is turning the corner out of recession thanks to our export-led economic recovery. We’re also taking steps to boost productive and sustainable growth through more flexible land use,” he says.
The news is particularly good for sheep and beef farmers and the kiwifruit sector.
But while there is delight at the increase, there is a caution that there is no absolutely certainty anymore – especially in the geopolitical space. One commentator summed it up by saying “the situation is stable, but still uncertain”.
Farmers have until the end of this week to help shape DairyNZ’s future focus.
Wayne McNee, chief executive of AgriZeroNZ, has resigned and will leave the organisation on 15 January 2027.
The New Zealand dairy sector set a record in the 2025/26 season, producing more than two billion kilograms of milksolids for the first time.
Milk powder prices are continuing their merry run, firming up a potential $10/kgMS farmgate price this season.
Teachers are welcoming the outgoing Government’s U-turn allowing agriculture and horticultural science to remain a standalone Year 11 subject.
Outgoing ACT MP and dairy farmer Mark Cameron says Saturday’s election result reflects voters deeply impacted by the cost of living.

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