Ray Smith: Dairy still has growth potential despite flat export outlook
Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) Director General Ray Smith believes there is potential for an increase in dairy farming in New Zealand.
That's according to the latest Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report, released today.
Agriculture and Forestry Minister Todd McClay says the projection builds on 2025's $60.4 billion forecast.
"The world wants New Zealand's high-quality, sustainable, safe food and fibre," McClay says.
Exports are forecast to rise 3% from the previous year, and 16% higher than two years previously.
Exports are expected to climb to more than $63 billion in the year to 30 June 2027.
The sector is well positioned to capitalise on robust demand and strong prices, supported by good growing conditions and higher production in most areas.
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"It's an outstanding result, especially considering a tough year with challenging global conditions and extreme weather impacting producers,” says McClay.
“The Government is backing the sector’s success, and the growth reflects a lot of on-the-ground hard work.
“The food and fibre sectors now account for 83 per cent of all New Zealand goods exports.”
Meanwhile, Associate Minister for Agriculture (Horticulture) Nicola Grigg describes the results as "phenomenal", adding that the $62 billion forecast would mean the primary sector makes up 15.3% of New Zealand's GDP.
“As Minister for Horticulture, I’m delighted that horticulture export revenue is expected to reach $9.2 billion next year, up 5% from this year (2025), which itself saw a 25% increase," Grigg says.
"These numbers reflect the hard work and resilience of New Zealand growers, who have faced significant adversity - from extreme weather events to international trade challenges," she adds.
“I want to take this opportunity to celebrate, but most importantly thank the sector. Horticulture plays a vital role in our regional and national economies, while also feeding Kiwis and millions more people around the world," Grigg concludes.
Key forecasts for the year ending 30 June 2026 include:
- Meat and wool export revenue lifting 7 per cent to $13.2 billion
- Horticulture export revenue lifting 5 per cent to $9.2 billion
- Forestry export revenue lifting 2 per cent to $6.3 billion
- Dairy export revenue lifting 1 per cent to $27.4 billion
