Red meat sector's 'wait and see' approach in the US
The red meat sector is adopting the New Zealand Government’s ‘wait and see’ approach as it braces for the second Donald Trump presidency in the US.
Beef + Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ) notes that over the past four years 150,000ha of farmland has been bought for conversion to carbon forestry. It is calling for limits on whole-farm conversions to forestry.
B+LNZ chair Kate Acland told Rural News that relying solely on forestry as a pathway to achieving climate goals is unsustainable for New Zealand.
"The impact of widespread afforestation driven by Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) policy settings is unacceptable for our agricultural sector, rural communities, and for the wider New Zealand economy."
Her comments follow new advice released by Climate Change Commission about how New Zealand could achieve a new Paris target of reducing emissions by 50% by 2030. The Government has also been asked by the UN to come up with a second nationally determined contribution (NDC2), a 2035 target, by February next year.
The commission's advice to the Government looks at domestic emissions reductions that could be achieved as part of the NDC2.
In its draft scenario for the agriculture sector, the commission presents the assumption of reduced herd sizes and stock per hectare for dairy, beef and sheep resulting from farmer choices related to land use, stock numbers and stocking rates alongside productivity improvements.
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Replacing farms with forests
From 2021 to 2035, the number of dairy milking cow reduces by 8% and the number of cows per hectare reduces by 6%. Overall sheep and beef cattle stock units reduce by 17% in this period, with a 4% reduction of stock units per hectare.
On forestry, the commission's scenario, when extended to 2023, assumes 533,000ha exotic and 689,000ha native forestry being planted between 2021 and 2035.
B+LNZ said this totals up to an astounding 1,222,000 hectares of land soon to be converted into forest, forever changing the face of rural New Zealand and our unique landscapes. For context, that's an area five times the size of Molesworth Station to be planted in trees by 2035.
Acland says while they support integrating trees on farms where suitable, the commission's modelling underestimates the impact of forestry on the red meat sector.
"It's vital that limits are set on whole-farm conversions to ensure a balanced approach that doesn't jeopardise our productive farmland or the communities that depend on it," she says.
Federated Farmers want the Government to "urgently distance" itself from the commission's proposal.
"The proposal would see large swathes of productive farmland sacrificed in the name of emission reductions," says Federated Farmers meat and wool chair Toby Williams.
"That would be the death knell for sheep farming as we know it in New Zealand, but also our small towns, rural communities and the families who call them home."
Williams says New Zealand needs to have a serious conversation about achieving the Paris targets.
"We must look at how much they are goin to cost us as a country - and I'm not just talking financial costs," Williams says.
"If the only way we can meet our international obligations is to plant entire communities in trees, undermine our productive sectors, or buy offshore units, then we have a serious problem.
"I think most reasonable New Zealanders would absolutely reject any future for our country that involves planting some of our most iconic rural landscapes in a blanket of pine trees."
