Methane targets disappoint farmers

B+LNZ chair Kate Acland says the NDC's failure to fully follow a split-gas approach is a significant concern, with New Zealand having split-gas targets domestically but an all-gas aggregated NDC target.

"This creates confusion as to what reductions New Zealand is actually trying to achieve from an emissions reduction perspective per gas and creates uncertainty for farmers about what future policy objectives will be.

"There was a real opportunity here to address that, but the Government has chosen not to."

However, a spokesman for the Ministry for the Environment told Rural News that as methane and carbon dioxide both contribute to climate change with differing behaviours, understanding their differences is key to climate policy.

"New Zealand's 2050 target is a split-gas target. Our emissions budgets are stepping stones to our 2050 net-zero target, and those are all-gases."

With the lower end of the target range for New Zealand's second NDC (51%) equivalent to the domestic split-gas climate change target, they say that this means achieving the domestic target will also achieve our second international target.

"Setting a single NDC target means we can maintain flexibility in how we achieve emissions reductions across the whole economy, including agriculture, as we don't know for certain where the biggest future developments in green technology will be," the spokesman says.

"Our single target refers to not just all gases but all sectors of the economy - there are not separate targets for individual industries."

Acland points out that Uruguay - another country with a significant agricultural sector - adopting a split gas approach has set an acceptable precedent for the same sort of thing in New Zealand.

The ministry spokesperson, however, says that each country needs to consider its own national circumstances before making targets and that all-gas, all-sector targets made like-for-like comparisons easier in New Zealand.

"A split-gas target was considered at the time of setting both of New Zealand's NDCs.

"It was decided a single target for NDC2 would be in New Zealand's best interests as this provides the greatest flexibility in achieving the target, best shows our progression from NDC1, is more easily comparable to other countries and is transparent in our actual emissions reduction.

"A key judgement for the Government is setting an NDC that represents the highest possible ambition in light of national circumstances."

However, in the same statement it was said that New Zealand's high level of sustainable electricity generation was not considered in terms of a split gas target - whether as a limiting factor in scalability of reducing emissions or as an offset to emissions generated.

This was of concern to Madeleine Hall, B+LNZ's climate change programme manager. She says that most GHG emissions in New Zealand are from transport and agricultural sectors who have more limited emissions reduction options before more drastic unprecedented changes must occur.

"This is partially why the country has a strong reliance on carbon removals from forestry to reduce our overall net emissions," Hall says.

Room For Revision

B+LNZ says that the results of an independent panel on methane last year found that New Zealand's current methane targets are too high and could be revised downwards.

The panel found that reductions in the range of 14-24% by 2050 would see methane not add any additional warming from 2017 levels, depending on how quickly the rest of the world reduces its emissions.

Kate Acland and Madeleine Hall say B+LNZ has long advocated for a review of the targets based on a warming approach. Acland said the panel's findings were an improvement on current methane targets but would still be a stretch for the sheep and beef sector.

"Methane should only be asked to do what is being asked of other gases, which is to achieve no additional warming. We simply can't leave the current 47% target hanging there."

In light of the uncertainty, B+LNZ has reiterated its call for the Governments to amend New Zealand's methane targets.

"Farmers are committed to the environment and absolute emissions from sheep and beef farms have reduced 35% since 1990. We know there's an expectation that further progress is made in reducing agricultural emissions from food production, but farmers need clarity and certainty.

"We need progress on this issue soon, and we'll continue to push this case to the Government?"

Is NZ On Track?

With New Zealand's first NDC aiming to reduce emissions to 50% by 2030, with the second aiming to reduce by 51-55% by 2035. Rural News asked the Ministry for the Environment if New Zealand was on track towards reaching those goals.

The MoE says that New Zealand's first NDC (NDC1) was set at a higher level than the domestic emissions budgets for the same period, to reflect New Zealand's highest possible ambition as required under the Paris Agreement.

It says the Government is prioritising domestic action - both through emissions reductions in New Zealand and planting trees that absorb carbon - but is considering all options to meet NDC1 including exploring co-operation with other countries.

"New Zealand's first emissions reduction oplan and other climate action has helped reduce the gap between projected domestic emissions reductions and NDC1.

"New Zealand's recently published second emissions reduction plan will help us to continue to bring down our emissions and further close the gap to NDC1."