University of Waikato research reveals 2050 drought threats
New research could help farmers prepare for a future where summer rainfall is increasingly unpredictable and where drought risk is rising, no matter what.
However, in lower South Island, facing dry conditions since December, rainfall is likely to be normal or below normal and temperatures are likely to be average or above average.
NIWA predicts soil moisture levels and river flows to follow the same regional pattern to rainfall: likely to be near normal for almost all regions, but normal or below normal for the west and south of the South Island.
A moderate La Niña is in place in the tropical Pacific and should persist into early autumn 2012 before fading back to neutral conditions.
For the February to April season, mean sea level pressures for early autumn (February to April) are likely to be above average south and southeast of the country, but below average to the north of New Zealand.
NIWA says for the February-April period as a whole, air temperatures are likely to be near average in most regions, but near average or above average in the west and south of the South Island. Sea surface temperatures in the New Zealand region are likely to be near average.
It projects that early autumn rainfall totals, soil moisture levels, and river flows are all likely to be near normal throughout most of the country. But the exception is the west and south of the South Island, where normal or below normal conditions are likely.
For Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty, early autumn temperatures are likely to be near average. Seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels, and river flows are all likely to be near normal.
In central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu and Wellington, seasonal temperatures are likely to be near average. Early autumn rainfall totals, soil moisture levels, and river flows are likely to be near normal, for the three month season as a whole.
For Gisborne, Hawke's Bay and Wairarapa, late summer temperatures are likely to be near average. Seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels, and river flows are all likely to be near normal.
Nelson, Marlborough and Buller can look forward to near average temperatures over the early autumn period.
Seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be near normal for the time of year.
For the West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago and Southland, early autumn temperatures are equally likely to be near average or above average. Seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are all equally likely to be near normal or below normal.
For coastal Canterbury and East Otago, early autumn temperatures are likely to be average. Seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be near normal.
