B+LNZ roadshow hits Feilding with sector optimism

Poorly attended, with less than a dozen farmers in the room, probably because many were up to their armpits with lambing, it began with an introductory video from Simon Quilty of Australia-based Global AgriTrends, who predicted a healthy future for beef and lamb, at least over the next 12 to 18 months.

With the US and China still at loggerheard over trade tariffs, Quilty noted that China was rebranding its agricultural imports, and the fact that the Chinese Imported Food Enterprise Regulations (CIFER) did not have an automatic renewal facility, so once a registration ran out, its non-renewal acted as a de-facto ban.

He suggested that, with effect from mid-August, more than 800 US companies would be ineligible to send product to China, while the United States Dept of Agriculture (USDA) was reporting no response for renewal information from its Chinese counterparts - all good news for NZ beef and lamb.

Elsewhere, Donald Trump was proposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, apparently in retribution for perceived persecution of the country's former president Jair Bolsanaro, which Trump was calling a disgrace.

Given that Brazil's beef imports into the US between January and May 2025 was up 118% over the same period in 2024 at 175,063 metric tonnes, it was a major supplier. By contrast, NZ sent 79,133 metric tonnes, while Australia landed 158,000 metric tonnes. If indeed the proposed tariff did eventuate, the result would offer extensive opportunities for Australian suppliers.

Of course, it follows that Brazil would be looking at other markets, putting pressure on existing NZ agreements. Quilty suggested Brazil had no access to Japan or Korea - both large beef importers - so would likely target China, who have the ability to handle imports as the US supply dried up.

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Looking ahead, Quilty noted that the current global prices for beef and sheep meat was being brought about by increasing demand and tightening supply.

He summed up with the comment, "the future looks outstanding" and a prediction looking forward: Based on fewer calves caused by drought and fewer calves being reared in the last two years because of poor margins, he noted that with prime steers currently sitting at $8, margins might soften slightly over the next 6 months, but more likely hold until the middle of 2026. In the case of NZ lamb, he suggested that prices might track as high as $10.50 by July 2026.

Following an explanation of B+LNZ's activities, Andrew Stewart, farmer director-Western North Island and a Marton sheep and beef farmer, raised a potential change in the method of levy gathering, changing from head counts to a policy based on carcase weights.

Currently headage payments for mutton and lamb are $0.75, with beef charged at $5.20. The proposed changes would see suggested rates at $0.03/kg for mutton, $0.04/kg for lamb and $0.02/kg for beef. Stewart suggested the proposal change would more closely align the amount of levy paid to the value of the carcase and futureproof alignment of levy to production, to some degree.