Global trade war 'bad news for NZ'
A global trade war beckons, which is bad news for a small open economy like New Zealand, warns Mark Smith ASB senior economist.
This is one of his observations after five months in the top rural job at ASB. Heer has 25 years experience in the rural industry following graduating from Massey in 1984 with an agricultural degree.
He then worked for the Rural Bank for 8-9 years in Whangarei and Dunedin, worked in rural valuation and was involved with the processing industry, an experience outside the farmgate but still in the rural sector.
Prior to becoming general manager he was ASB’s national manager rural corporate, dealing with farm customers across the country and leading a rural team.
“I see a lot of opportunity; global trends are positive for us because of increasing population and urbanisation particularly in Asia. The location of that market to New Zealand is favourable geographically,” he told Rural News.
“My observation is that growth opportunities will continue. I think the rural community has switched on to the fact that in to maximise those opportunities – getting that balance between productivity and environmental sustainability – is going to be important, and there are a lot of evolving regulatory requirements affecting that.
“There are also great opportunities with irrigation; Otago, Canterbury, Wairarapa and Hawke’s Bay have some interesting initiatives in irrigation. Some of those initiatives open up great opportunities for increasing productivity in those areas.”
Heer says before the global recession there was a significant swing towards dairy with a lot of land use change from sheep and beef. “That activity quietened down immediately post-GFC but we have seen some strength return to that market.
“We have recently seen some conversions completed and a few more new conversions have started – a bit of action and continuation of that growth in the dairy sector.”
ASB’s rural market share is 14.3%, has increased by 1% in last 12 months and “we would like to see that continue to grow”.
On the issue of the dry weather, Heer, originally from Otago, says at least Southland is having a favourable year, but there have been a few challenging seasons when the boot has been on the other foot – when Southland has struggled while the weather was favourable to the rest of the country.
“But certainly it is a bit of a crunch time over the next few weeks,” he says. “The pressure is starting to build a bit more on feed and managing stock condition and keeping an eye towards feed levels and animal condition going into winter and then thinking about next season.”
