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Jen Corkran
Chinese beef trade quotas and a looming suspension of Brazilian beef imports into the European Union are expected to reshape global beef trade flows over the remainder of 2026, with implications for New Zealand exporters, according to Rabobank's Q3 Global Beef Quarterly report.
The report says Chinese quotas have already led to a redistribution of global beef trade volumes in recent months. Report co-author and Rabobank senior animal protein analyst Jen Corkran says Australia reached its China safeguard beef quota in mid-June, resulting in a 71% month-on-month decline in Australian beef exports to China between May and June.
"As Australian shipments fell away, Chinese buyers turned to other suppliers and New Zealand was a key beneficiary, with imports rising 66% year-on-year, while volumes from Canada and Bolivia also increased 104% and 62% respectively," Corkran says.
Brazil is expected to reach its own China safeguard quota around August, and anticipation of reduced access to the Chinese market has already put downward pressure on Brazilian cattle prices, according to the report.
Corkran says Brazil's beef industry is also contending with a proposed EU suspension of imports, reportedly driven by food safety concerns.
"The proposed EU suspension of Brazilian beef imports... has the potential to trigger a further reshaping of global beef trade flows from September," she says.
If implemented, the report estimates around 10,000 tonnes per month of Brazilian beef would need to be redirected into alternative markets, increasing competition across a number of major importing regions.
Corkran says the combination of trade disruptions is likely to affect the destination of New Zealand beef exports over the short-to-medium term.
"The combination of China's quota system and potential restrictions on Brazilian beef has the capacity to significantly alter global trade flows through the second half of the year," she says, adding that this creates opportunities in some markets but also greater competition as displaced Brazilian product is redirected into key destinations such as the US, Japan and South Korea.
Corkran says the key question over coming months is where displaced product ultimately lands and how quickly global buyers adjust their sourcing strategies.
"Despite the uncertainty around global trade flows, the underlying fundamentals for New Zealand beef remain constructive, and there is plenty to watch on a global trade level heading into the latter half of the year," she says. "New Zealand is relatively well positioned given the diversity of its export portfolio and continued demand across major markets."
The report says global cattle prices pulled back modestly in July from the record levels reached earlier in 2026, with prices in Australia, Canada and the US easing by 2–6% from June.
The report attributes the softer sentiment to improved cattle availability, signs of consumer resistance to higher beef prices, and ongoing trade disruptions, and notes further price consolidation is possible over coming months.
Corkran says RaboResearch's forecast for lower global beef production remains intact.
"While quarter two data is not yet complete, production is expected to decline across key markets including Europe, the U.S., Brazil, and China," she says, adding that the downturn is expected to continue over the next 12 months, with Brazil projected to post the largest volume decline.
Overall, global beef production is forecast to fall 2% year-on-year.
The report says New Zealand cattle prices continue to benefit from global beef scarcity.
According to AgriHQ indicators cited in the report, bull beef prices are holding above $9.70/kg cwt across New Zealand, with some schedules pushing through $10.00/kg cwt by mid-August, up from closer to $9.00/kg cwt at the start of the second quarter.
Corkran says manufacturing cow prices have moved well above $8.00/kg cwt, reflecting sustained demand for trim, while prime prices continue to edge toward and beyond $10.00/kg cwt. Across key categories, farmgate prices remain as much as 60% above the five-year average.
Corkran says New Zealand supply has now caught up following a slower first quarter. Stats NZ data cited in the report puts quarter two beef production at just under 214,000 tonnes, around 20% higher than the same quarter in 2025, taking first-half 2026 production about 5% ahead year-on-year. That aligns with RaboResearch's forecast for 2026 New Zealand beef production to lift somewhere in the range of 4–6%.
The report says export markets are converting tight global supply into record returns for New Zealand beef. With higher total production, quarter two exports also rose, reaching 152,405 tonnes and close to $2.04 billion in value. For the full first half of 2026, export value hit a new record of $3.58 billion, well ahead of 2025, driven by higher average export values.
The US remains the anchor market for New Zealand beef, taking 40% of quarter two export volume and 45% of total value, while China accounted for around a quarter of volume and 18% of value.
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