Fonterra slashes forecast milk price, again
Fonterra has slashed another 50c off its milk price forecast as global milk flows shows no sign of easing.
This is despite China’s imports being 12% up in the year to September 2017 and increasing a whopping 34% (53,000 tonnes) in September versus the same month last year.
NZ’s total dairy exports for September decreased 7% (14,000t) versus the same month last year.
Exports for the 12 months to September 2017 were down 2%.
“Weak powder numbers led the decline, with whole milk powder (WMP) and skim milk powder (SMP) down 11% and 26% respectively,” the update says. “Fluid and fresh dairy growth continued, up 9000t (39%) for September.”
Weak volumes for SMP, AMF and butter – down 11%, 14% and 10% respectively – led to the overall 2% decline in exports in the year to September.
Fonterra Australia dairy exports were down 3% both in September and for the year to September 2017.
Meanwhile the latest figures show European Union dairy exports rose 5% in the 12 months to July 2017 and 10% (40,000t) in July versus the same month in the previous year.
Exports of SMP increased significantly, up 70% (30,000t). Fluid and fresh dairy and infant formula also had solid growth, up a combined 9%. This was partially offset by declines in whey powder, down 16% in July.
Exports for the 12 months to July were up 5% (227,000t) on the previous comparable period. SMP, infant formula, cheese and lactose exports increased significantly, up a combined 265,000t (13%), offset by declines in fluid and fresh dairy, butter and AMF, down a combined 56,000t.
US exports were up 11% for the 12 months to September 2017 but decreased by 6% (11,000t) in September versus the same month the previous year.
This was the second consecutive month of declining US exports.
Leading China’s increase in imports were WMP, infant formula and SMP, up a combined 96% (33,000t) in September.
“Imports continue very strong into China, with almost all categories showing growth this year: WMP, infant formula and SMP grew the most, up a combined 22% (179,000t),” the Global Dairy Update says.
