Last week Rabobank released its quarterly dairy report saying “the strength of the recent rally is hard to justify on current fundamentals.” It came out the day before the latest GDT event, at which the index dived 8.8%. Rabobank’s global reach and status means most GDT bidders would have read the report. The expectation for a correction was set, and sure enough, the market delivered. Of course, the fundamentals were out there anyway so prices were likely to ease regardless of the report, but probably not nearly as sharply. Thanks Rabo: great report; lousy timing.
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Expectation is a powerful force in commodity markets. Show buyers a correction is due and they’ll reduce demand, precipitating the predicted fall.
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