increase font size
Emma Higgins.
A shaky start possible, but a strong finish anticipated. That’s the prediction from Rabobank on the 2018-19 season starting June 1.
A new industry report from the bank says farmers are in for a third season with a “milk price starting with a six”.
In its recently-released dairy seasonal update A hit for six in 2018/19 – New Zealand dairy farmers face a triple treat, Rabobank says New Zealand dairy farmers have enjoyed a period of profitability with milk prices above breakeven – and the upcoming season will see this run continue.
Rabobank forecasts a farmgate milk price of $6.40/kgMS for the 2018-19 season.
Report author, dairy analyst Emma Higgins, says the 2018-19 season should be profitable for most New Zealand dairy farmers, despite greater uncertainty surrounding the operating environment than would usually be the case.
One of the global risks looming in the near term is the peak period of milk production in the northern hemisphere.
“The northern hemisphere flush will be an influential pressure point for commodity prices at the start of the 2018-19 season and we anticipate that supply will outstrip global demand in the coming months,” Higgins said.
However, as the second half of the 2018-19 season develops, Rabobank anticipates commodity prices will improve as production growth from key exporting regions decreases and a robust import program by Chinese buyers supports commodity prices across this period.
Positive margins expected, but pressure points linger
The report says ample supply in key fertiliser markets continues to drive low global benchmark fertiliser prices, favouring New Zealand farmers and supporting strong farmer margins in the lead up to spring.
However, Higgins says, while farmers should budget for affordable fertiliser prices over the application period, there is risk of some inflationary retail pressure.
“Rabobank anticipates rising ocean freight costs, combined with a weakening NZ dollar over the next 12 months will result is some upward pressure on fertiliser prices,” she said. According to the report, another factor which may impact farmer margins in the 2018-19 season is upward pressure on interest rates.
Rabobank is launching the 2025 Rabobank Good Deeds Competition, giving rural community groups across New Zealand a chance to win a day’s labour support and $5,000 in funding for their nominated community project.
More than 70 farmers from across the North and South Islands recently spent a dayand- a-half learning new business management and planning skills at Rabobank Ag Pathways Programmes held in Invercargill, Ashburton and Hawera.
A new Indonesian school milk programme is expected to significantly increase the country's total dairy consumption, creating opportunities for New Zealand and other global dairy players.
Twenty rural community hubs across New Zealand will receive $5,000 to upgrade their facilities having been selected as the winners of Rabobank's Community Hub Competition.
New Zealand is so far escaping the unpredictable vagaries of President Donald Trump's trade policies by the skin of its teeth.
On the eve of his departure from Federated Farmers board, Richard McIntyre is thanking farmers for their support and words of encouragement during his stint as a farmer advocate.
A project reducing strains and sprains on farm has won the Innovation category in the New Zealand Workplace Health and Safety Awards 2025.
Beef + Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ), in partnership with the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) and other sector organisations, has launched a national survey to understand better the impact of facial eczema (FE) on farmers.
One of New Zealand's latest and largest agrivoltaics farm Te Herenga o Te Rā is delivering clean renewable energy while preserving the land's agricultural value for sheep grazing under the modules.
Global food company Nestle’s chair Paul Bulcke will step down at its next annual meeting in April 2026.
Brendan Attrill of Caiseal Trust in Taranaki has been announced as the 2025 National Ambassador for Sustainable Farming and Growing and recipient of the Gordon Stephenson Trophy at the National Sustainability Showcase at in Wellington this evening.
OPINION: Last week, Greenpeace lit up Fonterra's Auckland headquarters with 'messages from the common people' - that the sector is…
OPINION: Once upon a time the Fieldays were for real farmers, salt of the earth people who thrived on hard…
